February 20, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11

Team Ratings for Week 11

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 12.12 10.73 1.40
Bulls 10.67 9.00 1.70
Munster 9.64 10.54 -0.90
Glasgow 6.68 4.19 2.50
Stormers 6.42 8.93 -2.50
Ulster 4.54 7.80 -3.30
Connacht 4.10 3.17 0.90
Sharks 0.29 0.85 -0.60
Edinburgh -0.07 -2.26 2.20
Lions -0.10 -4.26 4.20
Benetton -3.28 -5.12 1.80
Ospreys -3.73 -7.79 4.10
Cardiff Rugby -4.20 -5.16 1.00
Scarlets -11.50 -2.23 -9.30
Dragons -14.98 -8.14 -6.80
Zebre -16.61 -20.25 3.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 80 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Scarlets vs. Munster Feb 17 7 – 42 -14.10 TRUE
2 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Feb 17 19 – 24 -14.00 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Bulls Feb 18 10 – 25 -7.20 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Benetton Feb 18 47 – 18 17.60 TRUE
5 Sharks vs. Stormers Feb 18 21 – 25 -4.20 TRUE
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Connacht Feb 18 12 – 16 -4.40 TRUE
7 Glasgow vs. Dragons Feb 18 40 – 7 24.20 TRUE
8 Ospreys vs. Ulster Feb 19 19 – 17 -5.80 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 11

Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Edinburgh vs. Ospreys Mar 02 Edinburgh 7.70
2 Munster vs. Zebre Mar 02 Munster 30.20
3 Lions vs. Sharks Mar 02 Lions 1.60
4 Benetton vs. Glasgow Mar 03 Glasgow -6.00
5 Bulls vs. Stormers Mar 03 Bulls 6.20
6 Connacht vs. Scarlets Mar 03 Connacht 19.60
7 Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster Mar 03 Leinster -12.30
8 Ulster vs. Dragons Mar 03 Ulster 23.50

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar

    How do I interpret you predictions for example 3.6

    10 months ago

    • avatar

      In a game between Edinburgh.vs.Ospreys on Mar 02 your prediction was Edinburgh to win by 7.70.
      How do you get to 7.70

      In a game between Munster vs. Zebre on Mar 02. You predicted Munster to win 30.20.

      How do you get to 30.20 ?

      And how does these work out to say 63 points 15 points

      10 months ago

      • avatar

        Very simple, it is:
        Home team rating – Away team rating + Home ground advantage

        There are two home ground advantage values, one if the two teams are from the same country, a larger value if they are from different countries.

        No home ground advantage if played at a neutral ground.

        Usually the first named team is the home team.

        10 months ago

  • avatar

    Hi @David Scott, your work is fantastic. I sent an email across a while ago but may have missed a response so apologies in advance if one was sent. Have you published the home ground advantage by team in all comps? I appreciate the values are a key part of the model and may not be sharable. Thanks

    10 months ago

    • avatar

      I don’t publish them but you can work them out from the ratings and forecasts since the margin is just
      team 1 rating – team 2 rating + home ground advantage
      when team 1 has the home ground advantage

      10 months ago