United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 11
Team Ratings for Week 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 12.12 | 10.73 | 1.40 |
| Bulls | 10.67 | 9.00 | 1.70 |
| Munster | 9.64 | 10.54 | -0.90 |
| Glasgow | 6.68 | 4.19 | 2.50 |
| Stormers | 6.42 | 8.93 | -2.50 |
| Ulster | 4.54 | 7.80 | -3.30 |
| Connacht | 4.10 | 3.17 | 0.90 |
| Sharks | 0.29 | 0.85 | -0.60 |
| Edinburgh | -0.07 | -2.26 | 2.20 |
| Lions | -0.10 | -4.26 | 4.20 |
| Benetton | -3.28 | -5.12 | 1.80 |
| Ospreys | -3.73 | -7.79 | 4.10 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -4.20 | -5.16 | 1.00 |
| Scarlets | -11.50 | -2.23 | -9.30 |
| Dragons | -14.98 | -8.14 | -6.80 |
| Zebre | -16.61 | -20.25 | 3.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 80 matches played, 54 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scarlets vs. Munster | Feb 17 | 7 – 42 | -14.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Zebre vs. Edinburgh | Feb 17 | 19 – 24 | -14.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Lions vs. Bulls | Feb 18 | 10 – 25 | -7.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Leinster vs. Benetton | Feb 18 | 47 – 18 | 17.60 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sharks vs. Stormers | Feb 18 | 21 – 25 | -4.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Connacht | Feb 18 | 12 – 16 | -4.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Glasgow vs. Dragons | Feb 18 | 40 – 7 | 24.20 | TRUE |
| 8 | Ospreys vs. Ulster | Feb 19 | 19 – 17 | -5.80 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 11
Here are the predictions for Week 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Edinburgh vs. Ospreys | Mar 02 | Edinburgh | 7.70 |
| 2 | Munster vs. Zebre | Mar 02 | Munster | 30.20 |
| 3 | Lions vs. Sharks | Mar 02 | Lions | 1.60 |
| 4 | Benetton vs. Glasgow | Mar 03 | Glasgow | -6.00 |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Stormers | Mar 03 | Bulls | 6.20 |
| 6 | Connacht vs. Scarlets | Mar 03 | Connacht | 19.60 |
| 7 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Leinster | Mar 03 | Leinster | -12.30 |
| 8 | Ulster vs. Dragons | Mar 03 | Ulster | 23.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
How do I interpret you predictions for example 3.6
9 months ago
In a game between Edinburgh.vs.Ospreys on Mar 02 your prediction was Edinburgh to win by 7.70.
How do you get to 7.70
In a game between Munster vs. Zebre on Mar 02. You predicted Munster to win 30.20.
How do you get to 30.20 ?
And how does these work out to say 63 points 15 points
9 months ago
Very simple, it is:
Home team rating – Away team rating + Home ground advantage
There are two home ground advantage values, one if the two teams are from the same country, a larger value if they are from different countries.
No home ground advantage if played at a neutral ground.
Usually the first named team is the home team.
9 months ago
Hi @David Scott, your work is fantastic. I sent an email across a while ago but may have missed a response so apologies in advance if one was sent. Have you published the home ground advantage by team in all comps? I appreciate the values are a key part of the model and may not be sharable. Thanks
9 months ago
I don’t publish them but you can work them out from the ratings and forecasts since the margin is just
team 1 rating – team 2 rating + home ground advantage
when team 1 has the home ground advantage
9 months ago