February 5, 2024

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 10

Team Ratings for Week 10

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.23 10.73 0.50
Bulls 9.89 9.00 0.90
Munster 8.10 10.54 -2.40
Stormers 6.44 8.93 -2.50
Glasgow 5.98 4.19 1.80
Ulster 5.32 7.80 -2.50
Connacht 4.13 3.17 1.00
Lions 0.68 -4.26 4.90
Edinburgh 0.65 -2.26 2.90
Sharks 0.28 0.85 -0.60
Benetton -2.39 -5.12 2.70
Cardiff Rugby -4.23 -5.16 0.90
Ospreys -4.52 -7.79 3.30
Scarlets -9.96 -2.23 -7.70
Dragons -14.27 -8.14 -6.10
Zebre -17.33 -20.25 2.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 47 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 65.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Lions Jan 07 26 – 20 1.60 TRUE
2 Bulls vs. Lions Jan 28 30 – 28 12.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 10

Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Scarlets vs. Munster Feb 17 Munster -14.10
2 Zebre vs. Edinburgh Feb 17 Edinburgh -14.00
3 Lions vs. Bulls Feb 18 Bulls -7.20
4 Leinster vs. Benetton Feb 18 Leinster 17.60
5 Sharks vs. Stormers Feb 18 Stormers -4.20
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Connacht Feb 18 Connacht -4.40
7 Glasgow vs. Dragons Feb 18 Glasgow 24.20
8 Ospreys vs. Ulster Feb 19 Ulster -5.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »