February 5, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 15

Team Ratings for Round 15

Sorry I missed round 14 predictions. I have been overseas and a bit out of contact.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.04 7.24 -0.20
Stade Rochelais 5.66 6.40 -0.70
Bordeaux Begles 4.97 4.07 0.90
Racing 92 4.51 3.42 1.10
Toulon 3.64 3.11 0.50
Stade Francais 2.82 2.62 0.20
Clermont 2.00 1.47 0.50
Castres Olympique 1.15 -0.39 1.50
Montpellier 0.30 2.09 -1.80
Section Paloise -0.24 -0.44 0.20
Lyon -1.09 2.97 -4.10
Bayonne -1.28 -1.32 0.00
USA Perpignan -3.83 -3.64 -0.20
US Oyonnax -8.03 -10.00 2.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 98 matches played, 72 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Lyon Feb 04 38 – 21 8.80 TRUE
2 Section Paloise vs. Castres Olympique Feb 04 33 – 44 6.20 FALSE
3 Stade Rochelais vs. Montpellier Feb 04 18 – 10 12.30 TRUE
4 Stade Toulousain vs. Bayonne Feb 04 46 – 26 14.20 TRUE
5 US Oyonnax vs. Stade Francais Feb 04 19 – 23 -4.40 TRUE
6 USA Perpignan vs. Racing 92 Feb 04 26 – 5 -3.40 FALSE
7 Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 05 32 – 37 5.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 15

Here are the predictions for Round 15. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. Clermont Feb 18 Bayonne 3.20
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise Feb 18 Bordeaux Begles 11.70
3 Lyon vs. Stade Rochelais Feb 18 Stade Rochelais -0.30
4 Racing 92 vs. Montpellier Feb 18 Racing 92 10.70
5 Stade Francais vs. USA Perpignan Feb 18 Stade Francais 13.20
6 Stade Toulousain vs. US Oyonnax Feb 18 Stade Toulousain 21.60
7 Castres Olympique vs. Toulon Feb 19 Castres Olympique 4.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »