February 5, 2024

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 13

Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Saracens 6.48 6.82 -0.30
Leicester Tigers 6.17 6.13 0.00
Northampton Saints 4.34 2.66 1.70
Harlequins 3.93 1.93 2.00
Bristol 3.19 1.00 2.20
Exeter Chiefs 3.02 -0.89 3.90
Bath 1.44 -1.26 2.70
Sale Sharks -0.18 6.46 -6.60
Gloucester -3.72 -1.45 -2.30
Newcastle Falcons -13.92 -10.63 -3.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 60 matches played, 44 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Harlequins vs. Leicester Tigers Jan 27 19 – 20 4.80 FALSE
2 Bristol vs. Bath Jan 28 57 – 44 6.60 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Newcastle Falcons Jan 28 38 – 13 24.10 TRUE
4 Saracens vs. Exeter Chiefs Jan 28 40 – 22 7.60 TRUE
5 Gloucester vs. Sale Sharks Jan 29 32 – 20 0.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Mar 23 Bristol 4.90
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Gloucester Mar 23 Leicester Tigers 15.90
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons Mar 24 Exeter Chiefs 22.90
4 Saracens vs. Harlequins Mar 24 Saracens 8.60
5 Bath vs. Sale Sharks Mar 25 Bath 7.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »