January 8, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 13

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Team Ratings for Round 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 6.31 7.24 -0.90
Stade Rochelais 5.73 6.40 -0.70
Racing 92 5.71 3.42 2.30
Bordeaux Begles 5.03 4.07 1.00
Toulon 4.17 3.11 1.10
Stade Francais 2.40 2.62 -0.20
Clermont 1.12 1.47 -0.40
Castres Olympique 1.06 -0.39 1.50
Section Paloise 0.25 -0.44 0.70
Montpellier 0.15 2.09 -1.90
Bayonne -0.63 -1.32 0.70
Lyon -0.77 2.97 -3.70
USA Perpignan -4.50 -3.64 -0.90
US Oyonnax -8.41 -10.00 1.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 84 matches played, 64 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Jan 06 24 – 23 13.00 TRUE
2 Montpellier vs. Toulon Jan 06 27 – 17 1.60 TRUE
3 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Jan 06 34 – 30 11.90 TRUE
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 06 20 – 29 1.80 FALSE
5 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Jan 06 14 – 14 8.60 FALSE
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Jan 06 45 – 0 11.60 TRUE
7 USA Perpignan vs. US Oyonnax Jan 06 27 – 12 9.90 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 13

Here are the predictions for Round 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bayonne vs. US Oyonnax Jan 28 Bayonne 14.30
2 Bordeaux Begles vs. Stade Francais Jan 28 Bordeaux Begles 9.10
3 Castres Olympique vs. Clermont Jan 28 Castres Olympique 6.40
4 Lyon vs. USA Perpignan Jan 28 Lyon 10.20
5 Montpellier vs. Section Paloise Jan 28 Montpellier 6.40
6 Toulon vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 28 Toulon 4.90
7 Racing 92 vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 29 Racing 92 5.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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