January 3, 2024

Top 14 Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Racing 92 6.10 3.42 2.70
Bordeaux Begles 5.45 4.07 1.40
Stade Rochelais 5.35 6.40 -1.10
Stade Toulousain 5.33 7.24 -1.90
Toulon 4.59 3.11 1.50
Stade Francais 2.83 2.62 0.20
Clermont 0.68 1.47 -0.80
Castres Olympique 0.66 -0.39 1.10
Section Paloise 0.63 -0.44 1.10
Lyon 0.22 2.97 -2.70
Montpellier -0.26 2.09 -2.40
Bayonne -1.05 -1.32 0.30
USA Perpignan -4.75 -3.64 -1.10
US Oyonnax -8.16 -10.00 1.80

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 77 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles Dec 30 35 – 40 2.50 FALSE
2 US Oyonnax vs. Section Paloise Dec 30 34 – 13 -3.80 FALSE
3 Bayonne vs. Racing 92 Dec 31 27 – 23 -1.20 FALSE
4 Lyon vs. Montpellier Dec 31 20 – 18 7.50 TRUE
5 Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain Dec 31 29 – 8 5.50 TRUE
6 Toulon vs. Stade Francais Dec 31 19 – 5 7.60 TRUE
7 Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan Jan 01 13 – 17 13.00 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Bayonne Jan 06 Bordeaux Begles 13.00
2 Montpellier vs. Toulon Jan 06 Montpellier 1.60
3 Racing 92 vs. Castres Olympique Jan 06 Racing 92 11.90
4 Section Paloise vs. Stade Rochelais Jan 06 Section Paloise 1.80
5 Stade Francais vs. Clermont Jan 06 Stade Francais 8.60
6 Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon Jan 06 Stade Toulousain 11.60
7 USA Perpignan vs. US Oyonnax Jan 06 USA Perpignan 9.90

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »