Top 14 Predictions for Round 11
Team Ratings for Round 11
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Racing 92 | 6.36 | 3.42 | 2.90 |
| Stade Toulousain | 5.84 | 7.24 | -1.40 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.07 | 4.07 | 1.00 |
| Stade Rochelais | 4.83 | 6.40 | -1.60 |
| Toulon | 4.27 | 3.11 | 1.20 |
| Stade Francais | 3.15 | 2.62 | 0.50 |
| Section Paloise | 1.39 | -0.44 | 1.80 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.22 | -0.39 | 1.60 |
| Clermont | 1.06 | 1.47 | -0.40 |
| Lyon | 0.49 | 2.97 | -2.50 |
| Montpellier | -0.54 | 2.09 | -2.60 |
| Bayonne | -1.30 | -1.32 | 0.00 |
| USA Perpignan | -5.31 | -3.64 | -1.70 |
| US Oyonnax | -8.92 | -10.00 | 1.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 70 matches played, 56 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon | Dec 23 | 46 – 10 | 9.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | USA Perpignan vs. Bayonne | Dec 23 | 36 – 10 | 0.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique | Dec 24 | 30 – 21 | 4.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. US Oyonnax | Dec 24 | 66 – 10 | 19.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Clermont | Dec 24 | 22 – 11 | 6.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Francais vs. Stade Rochelais | Dec 24 | 18 – 13 | 4.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Toulon | Dec 24 | 25 – 17 | 8.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 11
Here are the predictions for Round 11. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clermont vs. Bordeaux Begles | Dec 30 | Clermont | 2.50 |
| 2 | US Oyonnax vs. Section Paloise | Dec 30 | Section Paloise | -3.80 |
| 3 | Bayonne vs. Racing 92 | Dec 31 | Racing 92 | -1.20 |
| 4 | Lyon vs. Montpellier | Dec 31 | Lyon | 7.50 |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Stade Toulousain | Dec 31 | Stade Rochelais | 5.50 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Stade Francais | Dec 31 | Toulon | 7.60 |
| 7 | Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan | Jan 01 | Castres Olympique | 13.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »