Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 10
Team Ratings for Round 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Saracens | 6.67 | 6.82 | -0.10 |
| Leicester Tigers | 4.78 | 6.13 | -1.30 |
| Harlequins | 4.49 | 1.93 | 2.60 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 3.90 | -0.89 | 4.80 |
| Northampton Saints | 3.36 | 2.66 | 0.70 |
| Bath | 3.16 | -1.26 | 4.40 |
| Bristol | 2.60 | 1.00 | 1.60 |
| Sale Sharks | 1.78 | 6.46 | -4.70 |
| Gloucester | -6.35 | -1.45 | -4.90 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -13.64 | -10.63 | -3.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 45 matches played, 33 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 73.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newcastle Falcons vs. Bristol | Dec 23 | 13 – 21 | -10.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sale Sharks vs. Saracens | Dec 23 | 22 – 20 | 0.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Leicester Tigers | Dec 24 | 29 – 10 | 2.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Gloucester vs. Northampton Saints | Dec 24 | 29 – 31 | -4.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Bath vs. Harlequins | Dec 24 | 25 – 17 | 3.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 10
Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Exeter Chiefs | Dec 30 | Bristol | 4.70 |
| 2 | Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons | Dec 31 | Saracens | 26.30 |
| 3 | Northampton Saints vs. Sale Sharks | Dec 31 | Northampton Saints | 7.60 |
| 4 | Harlequins vs. Gloucester | Dec 31 | Harlequins | 16.80 |
| 5 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bath | Jan 01 | Leicester Tigers | 7.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »