Top 14 Predictions for Round 9
Team Ratings for Round 9
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 6.26 | 7.24 | -1.00 |
| Racing 92 | 5.44 | 3.42 | 2.00 |
| Stade Rochelais | 4.42 | 6.40 | -2.00 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.24 | 4.07 | 0.20 |
| Toulon | 3.78 | 3.11 | 0.70 |
| Stade Francais | 2.72 | 2.62 | 0.10 |
| Lyon | 1.77 | 2.97 | -1.20 |
| Section Paloise | 1.64 | -0.44 | 2.10 |
| Clermont | 1.15 | 1.47 | -0.30 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.99 | -0.39 | 1.40 |
| Montpellier | -0.32 | 2.09 | -2.40 |
| Bayonne | -0.99 | -1.32 | 0.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -5.66 | -3.64 | -2.00 |
| US Oyonnax | -7.84 | -10.00 | 2.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 56 matches played, 42 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 26 | 46 – 22 | 15.60 | TRUE |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Bayonne | Nov 26 | 42 – 29 | 8.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. US Oyonnax | Nov 26 | 21 – 26 | 15.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Francais | Nov 26 | 30 – 6 | 4.20 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Clermont | Nov 26 | 31 – 10 | 10.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 26 | 41 – 19 | 8.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Racing 92 vs. Stade Rochelais | Nov 27 | 32 – 10 | 6.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 9
Here are the predictions for Round 9. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Montpellier | Dec 03 | Bayonne | 5.80 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Lyon | Dec 03 | Castres Olympique | 5.70 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Racing 92 | Dec 03 | Clermont | 2.20 |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. USA Perpignan | Dec 03 | Stade Rochelais | 16.60 |
| 5 | Toulon vs. Section Paloise | Dec 03 | Toulon | 8.60 |
| 6 | US Oyonnax vs. Bordeaux Begles | Dec 03 | Bordeaux Begles | -5.60 |
| 7 | Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain | Dec 04 | Stade Francais | 3.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »