November 21, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 6

Team Ratings for Week 6

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 11.92 10.73 1.20
Munster 9.76 10.54 -0.80
Bulls 8.55 9.00 -0.40
Stormers 8.18 8.93 -0.70
Ulster 6.64 7.80 -1.20
Glasgow 6.02 4.19 1.80
Connacht 3.11 3.17 -0.10
Edinburgh -0.11 -2.26 2.10
Sharks -2.23 0.85 -3.10
Lions -2.25 -4.26 2.00
Benetton -2.80 -5.12 2.30
Cardiff Rugby -5.75 -5.16 -0.60
Ospreys -7.91 -7.79 -0.10
Scarlets -8.03 -2.23 -5.80
Dragons -9.14 -8.14 -1.00
Zebre -15.98 -20.25 4.30

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 40 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Edinburgh vs. Bulls Nov 18 31 – 23 -6.90 FALSE
2 Ulster vs. Lions Nov 18 24 – 17 14.40 TRUE
3 Zebre vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 18 22 – 22 -7.80 FALSE
4 Sharks vs. Connacht Nov 19 12 – 13 -1.40 TRUE
5 Dragons vs. Ospreys Nov 19 20 – 5 -1.80 FALSE
6 Munster vs. Stormers Nov 19 10 – 3 5.20 TRUE
7 Glasgow vs. Benetton Nov 19 26 – 12 12.50 TRUE
8 Leinster vs. Scarlets Nov 19 54 – 5 19.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Week 6

Here are the predictions for Week 6. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cardiff Rugby vs. Stormers Nov 25 Stormers -9.90
2 Edinburgh vs. Benetton Nov 25 Edinburgh 6.70
3 Ospreys vs. Scarlets Nov 25 Ospreys 2.10
4 Lions vs. Zebre Nov 25 Lions 17.70
5 Bulls vs. Connacht Nov 26 Bulls 9.40
6 Sharks vs. Dragons Nov 26 Sharks 10.90
7 Leinster vs. Munster Nov 26 Leinster 4.20
8 Glasgow vs. Ulster Nov 26 Glasgow 3.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »