Top 14 Predictions for Round 7
Team Ratings for Round 7
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 6.23 | 7.24 | -1.00 |
| Stade Rochelais | 5.13 | 6.40 | -1.30 |
| Racing 92 | 4.43 | 3.42 | 1.00 |
| Stade Francais | 3.85 | 2.62 | 1.20 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 3.62 | 4.07 | -0.50 |
| Toulon | 2.89 | 3.11 | -0.20 |
| Lyon | 2.28 | 2.97 | -0.70 |
| Clermont | 1.93 | 1.47 | 0.50 |
| Section Paloise | 1.52 | -0.44 | 2.00 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.12 | -0.39 | 1.50 |
| Montpellier | 0.66 | 2.09 | -1.40 |
| Bayonne | -1.29 | -1.32 | 0.00 |
| USA Perpignan | -5.57 | -3.64 | -1.90 |
| US Oyonnax | -9.21 | -10.00 | 0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 42 matches played, 32 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. US Oyonnax | Nov 12 | 39 – 11 | 16.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Stade Francais | Nov 12 | 32 – 36 | 5.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Clermont | Nov 12 | 17 – 20 | 6.10 | FALSE |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 12 | 20 – 11 | 3.90 | TRUE |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Bayonne | Nov 12 | 18 – 15 | 13.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. USA Perpignan | Nov 12 | 43 – 34 | 19.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Racing 92 | Nov 13 | 31 – 26 | 5.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 7
Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Section Paloise | Nov 18 | Bayonne | 3.70 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 18 | Castres Olympique | 1.40 |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Toulon | Nov 18 | Clermont | 5.50 |
| 4 | Stade Francais vs. Racing 92 | Nov 18 | Stade Francais | 5.90 |
| 5 | Stade Rochelais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Nov 18 | Stade Rochelais | 8.00 |
| 6 | US Oyonnax vs. Lyon | Nov 18 | Lyon | -5.00 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Montpellier | Nov 18 | USA Perpignan | 0.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »