October 31, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 3

Team Ratings for Week 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stormers 10.24 8.93 1.30
Bulls 10.16 9.00 1.20
Leinster 9.92 10.73 -0.80
Munster 9.60 10.54 -0.90
Ulster 7.07 7.80 -0.70
Glasgow 4.99 4.19 0.80
Connacht 3.19 3.17 0.00
Sharks 0.22 0.85 -0.60
Edinburgh -2.40 -2.26 -0.10
Lions -3.07 -4.26 1.20
Benetton -3.75 -5.12 1.40
Cardiff Rugby -5.04 -5.16 0.10
Scarlets -6.20 -2.23 -4.00
Ospreys -8.08 -7.79 -0.30
Dragons -9.07 -8.14 -0.90
Zebre -17.78 -20.25 2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 16 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Ospreys vs. Zebre Oct 28 34 – 31 15.70 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Glasgow Oct 29 34 – 26 0.80 TRUE
3 Stormers vs. Scarlets Oct 29 52 – 7 16.30 TRUE
4 Leinster vs. Sharks Oct 29 34 – 13 12.30 TRUE
5 Edinburgh vs. Lions Oct 29 17 – 16 5.60 TRUE
6 Benetton vs. Munster Oct 30 13 – 13 -11.10 FALSE
7 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 30 9 – 16 -0.80 TRUE
8 Ulster vs. Bulls Oct 30 26 – 19 -0.60 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 3

Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Glasgow vs. Stormers Nov 04 Stormers -1.30
2 Ospreys vs. Sharks Nov 04 Sharks -4.30
3 Zebre vs. Bulls Nov 04 Bulls -23.90
4 Leinster vs. Edinburgh Nov 05 Leinster 16.30
5 Munster vs. Dragons Nov 05 Munster 22.70
6 Scarlets vs. Cardiff Rugby Nov 05 Scarlets 0.80
7 Connacht vs. Ulster Nov 05 Ulster -1.90
8 Benetton vs. Lions Nov 05 Benetton 3.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »