Top 14 Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 6.74 | 7.24 | -0.50 |
| Stade Rochelais | 5.88 | 6.40 | -0.50 |
| Racing 92 | 4.77 | 3.42 | 1.30 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 3.67 | 4.07 | -0.40 |
| Toulon | 3.24 | 3.11 | 0.10 |
| Stade Francais | 2.86 | 2.62 | 0.20 |
| Lyon | 2.43 | 2.97 | -0.50 |
| Montpellier | 1.33 | 2.09 | -0.80 |
| Castres Olympique | 1.21 | -0.39 | 1.60 |
| Section Paloise | 1.10 | -0.44 | 1.50 |
| Clermont | 0.74 | 1.47 | -0.70 |
| Bayonne | -0.92 | -1.32 | 0.40 |
| USA Perpignan | -6.28 | -3.64 | -2.60 |
| US Oyonnax | -9.17 | -10.00 | 0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 28 matches played, 22 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 78.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Stade Francais | Oct 30 | 16 – 3 | 1.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Lyon vs. Clermont | Oct 30 | 41 – 22 | 7.40 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Racing 92 | Oct 30 | 16 – 19 | 3.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Stade Rochelais vs. Castres Olympique | Oct 30 | 24 – 27 | 12.20 | FALSE |
| 5 | Stade Toulousain vs. Bordeaux Begles | Oct 30 | 29 – 22 | 9.90 | TRUE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. US Oyonnax | Oct 30 | 41 – 7 | 17.80 | TRUE |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise | Oct 30 | 24 – 39 | 0.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Montpellier | Nov 04 | Bordeaux Begles | 8.80 |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Bayonne | Nov 04 | Clermont | 8.20 |
| 3 | Racing 92 vs. Lyon | Nov 04 | Racing 92 | 8.80 |
| 4 | Section Paloise vs. Stade Toulousain | Nov 04 | Section Paloise | 0.90 |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique | Nov 04 | Stade Francais | 8.20 |
| 6 | US Oyonnax vs. Stade Rochelais | Nov 04 | Stade Rochelais | -8.50 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Toulon | Nov 04 | Toulon | -3.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »