October 26, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 2

Team Ratings for Week 2

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Bulls 10.92 9.00 1.90
Munster 10.48 10.54 -0.10
Leinster 9.21 10.73 -1.50
Stormers 8.19 8.93 -0.70
Ulster 6.31 7.80 -1.50
Glasgow 5.71 4.19 1.50
Connacht 2.47 3.17 -0.70
Sharks 0.92 0.85 0.10
Edinburgh -1.95 -2.26 0.30
Lions -3.53 -4.26 0.70
Scarlets -4.16 -2.23 -1.90
Benetton -4.62 -5.12 0.50
Cardiff Rugby -5.66 -5.16 -0.50
Ospreys -7.10 -7.79 0.70
Dragons -8.45 -8.14 -0.30
Zebre -18.76 -20.25 1.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 8 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Zebre vs. Ulster Oct 21 36 – 40 -24.00 TRUE
2 Connacht vs. Ospreys Oct 22 34 – 26 15.00 TRUE
3 Dragons vs. Edinburgh Oct 22 17 – 22 -1.90 TRUE
4 Lions vs. Stormers Oct 22 33 – 35 -11.20 TRUE
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Benetton Oct 22 22 – 23 4.00 FALSE
6 Munster vs. Sharks Oct 22 34 – 21 13.70 TRUE
7 Bulls vs. Scarlets Oct 22 63 – 21 15.20 TRUE
8 Glasgow vs. Leinster Oct 23 43 – 25 -2.50 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 2

Here are the predictions for Week 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Ospreys vs. Zebre Oct 28 Ospreys 15.70
2 Connacht vs. Glasgow Oct 29 Connacht 0.80
3 Stormers vs. Scarlets Oct 29 Stormers 16.30
4 Leinster vs. Sharks Oct 29 Leinster 12.30
5 Edinburgh vs. Lions Oct 29 Edinburgh 5.60
6 Benetton vs. Munster Oct 30 Munster -11.10
7 Dragons vs. Cardiff Rugby Oct 30 Cardiff Rugby -0.80
8 Ulster vs. Bulls Oct 30 Bulls -0.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »