October 26, 2023

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 3

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Team Ratings for Round 3

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 7.09 6.46 0.60
Leicester Tigers 4.15 6.13 -2.00
Exeter Chiefs 3.38 -0.89 4.30
Bristol 3.06 1.00 2.10
Harlequins 2.46 1.93 0.50
Northampton Saints 1.94 2.66 -0.70
Saracens 0.53 6.82 -6.30
Bath -0.28 -1.26 1.00
Gloucester -1.45 -1.45 0.00
Newcastle Falcons -10.13 -10.63 0.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 10 matches played, 6 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Oct 21 14 – 18 -2.30 TRUE
2 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Oct 22 27 – 33 7.20 FALSE
3 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 22 16 – 25 10.10 FALSE
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 22 17 – 24 5.20 FALSE
5 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 23 22 – 14 4.30 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 3

Here are the predictions for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Gloucester vs. Saracens Oct 28 Gloucester 4.00
2 Bristol vs. Harlequins Oct 28 Bristol 6.60
3 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Oct 29 Exeter Chiefs 2.30
4 Bath vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 29 Bath 1.60
5 Newcastle Falcons vs. Northampton Saints Oct 30 Northampton Saints -6.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »