October 16, 2023

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 2

Team Ratings for Round 2

Unfortunately I missed Round 1. I have been travelling and lacking internet access at times.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 6.02 6.46 -0.40
Leicester Tigers 5.23 6.13 -0.90
Exeter Chiefs 3.75 -0.89 4.60
Northampton Saints 3.10 2.66 0.40
Saracens 2.18 6.82 -4.60
Harlequins 2.09 1.93 0.20
Bristol 1.90 1.00 0.90
Gloucester -1.62 -1.45 -0.20
Bath -1.93 -1.26 -0.70
Newcastle Falcons -9.96 -10.63 0.70

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 5 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 80%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bristol vs. Leicester Tigers Oct 14 25 – 14 0.90 TRUE
2 Exeter Chiefs vs. Saracens Oct 14 65 – 10 -1.70 FALSE
3 Bath vs. Newcastle Falcons Oct 15 34 – 26 15.40 TRUE
4 Gloucester vs. Harlequins Oct 15 29 – 28 2.60 TRUE
5 Sale Sharks vs. Northampton Saints Oct 15 20 – 15 9.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 2

Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Newcastle Falcons vs. Gloucester Oct 21 Gloucester -2.30
2 Northampton Saints vs. Bristol Oct 22 Northampton Saints 7.20
3 Saracens vs. Bath Oct 22 Saracens 10.10
4 Leicester Tigers vs. Sale Sharks Oct 22 Leicester Tigers 5.20
5 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Oct 23 Harlequins 4.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    WILLEM DU PLESSIS

    Any chance of getting stats on the URC tournament

    1 year ago

    • avatar

      I have now posted predictions for week 2.

      I am back home with better access, so you can expect regular predictions. Also had to have some repairs done on the WordPress site, which I am not able to do myself.

      1 year ago