Predictions for the RWC 2023 Semi-Finals
Team Ratings for the RWC 2023 Semi-Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| New Zealand | 20.88 | 16.32 | 4.60 |
| Ireland | 18.62 | 15.46 | 3.20 |
| South Africa | 18.36 | 16.35 | 2.00 |
| France | 14.82 | 12.48 | 2.30 |
| Scotland | 8.28 | 6.81 | 1.50 |
| England | 6.62 | 4.22 | 2.40 |
| Argentina | 3.56 | 1.23 | 2.30 |
| Wales | 3.17 | 0.75 | 2.40 |
| Australia | 1.84 | 2.63 | -0.80 |
| Fiji | 0.01 | 0.58 | -0.60 |
| Samoa | -0.39 | -0.50 | 0.10 |
| Georgia | -4.61 | -2.56 | -2.00 |
| Japan | -5.54 | -6.10 | 0.60 |
| Italy | -9.63 | -8.84 | -0.80 |
| Tonga | -12.03 | -11.38 | -0.70 |
| Portugal | -13.18 | -13.61 | 0.40 |
| Uruguay | -16.17 | -15.47 | -0.70 |
| Namibia | -18.85 | -13.18 | -5.70 |
| Chile | -19.97 | -15.13 | -4.80 |
| Romania | -22.74 | -17.02 | -5.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 44 matches played, 36 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 81.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ireland vs. New Zealand | Oct 15 | 24 – 28 | -1.90 | TRUE |
| 2 | Wales vs. Argentina | Oct 15 | 17 – 29 | 0.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | France vs. South Africa | Oct 16 | 28 – 29 | 4.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | England vs. Fiji | Oct 16 | 30 – 24 | 6.70 | TRUE |
Predictions for the RWC 2023 Semi-Finals
Here are the predictions for the RWC Cup Semi-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Argentina vs. New Zealand | Oct 21 | New Zealand | -17.30 |
| 2 | England vs. South Africa | Oct 21 | South Africa | -11.70 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
New Zealand and South Africa FINAL. Like NZ to win final, Springboks are going to be hard to beat though, like they were in the last RWC 2019.
1 year ago