Bunnings NPC Predictions for the Quarter-Finals
Team Ratings for the Quarter-Finals
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wellington | 12.13 | 8.72 | 3.40 |
| Canterbury | 6.95 | 9.44 | -2.50 |
| Waikato | 4.58 | 3.71 | 0.90 |
| Bay of Plenty | 4.50 | 4.55 | -0.10 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 4.46 | 5.12 | -0.70 |
| Taranaki | 3.44 | -2.98 | 6.40 |
| Tasman | 3.12 | 2.20 | 0.90 |
| North Harbour | 3.06 | 7.75 | -4.70 |
| Auckland | 2.76 | 2.15 | 0.60 |
| Otago | -3.26 | 0.62 | -3.90 |
| Northland | -4.29 | -3.92 | -0.40 |
| Counties Manukau | -5.22 | -7.44 | 2.20 |
| Southland | -10.05 | -12.27 | 2.20 |
| Manawatu | -18.73 | -14.18 | -4.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 70 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Auckland vs. Northland | Sep 29 | 27 – 26 | 11.70 | TRUE |
| 2 | Waikato vs. Canterbury | Sep 30 | 37 – 35 | 0.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Wellington vs. Hawke’s Bay | Sep 30 | 18 – 20 | 12.80 | FALSE |
| 4 | Taranaki vs. North Harbour | Sep 30 | 54 – 21 | -1.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Bay of Plenty vs. Tasman | Oct 01 | 41 – 12 | 0.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Otago vs. Counties Manukau | Oct 01 | 38 – 22 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Manawatu vs. Southland | Oct 01 | 12 – 37 | -2.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for the Quarter-Finals
Here are the predictions for the Quarter-Finals. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canterbury vs. Auckland | Oct 06 | Canterbury | 7.20 |
| 2 | Wellington vs. Waikato | Oct 07 | Wellington | 10.60 |
| 3 | Taranaki vs. Tasman | Oct 07 | Taranaki | 3.30 |
| 4 | Bay of Plenty vs. Hawke’s Bay | Oct 08 | Bay of Plenty | 3.00 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »