RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 4
Team Ratings for Week 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ireland | 18.17 | 15.46 | 2.70 |
| South Africa | 17.89 | 16.35 | 1.50 |
| New Zealand | 17.23 | 16.32 | 0.90 |
| France | 14.26 | 12.48 | 1.80 |
| England | 7.25 | 4.22 | 3.00 |
| Scotland | 6.86 | 6.81 | 0.10 |
| Wales | 3.01 | 0.75 | 2.30 |
| Australia | 1.43 | 2.63 | -1.20 |
| Argentina | 1.27 | 1.23 | 0.00 |
| Fiji | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.00 |
| Samoa | -0.41 | -0.50 | 0.10 |
| Georgia | -3.79 | -2.56 | -1.20 |
| Japan | -5.77 | -6.10 | 0.30 |
| Italy | -6.67 | -8.84 | 2.20 |
| Tonga | -12.55 | -11.38 | -1.20 |
| Portugal | -13.49 | -13.61 | 0.10 |
| Uruguay | -15.22 | -15.47 | 0.20 |
| Namibia | -18.29 | -13.18 | -5.10 |
| Chile | -18.62 | -15.13 | -3.50 |
| Romania | -20.15 | -17.02 | -3.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 20 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 83.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italy vs. Uruguay | Sep 20 | 38 – 17 | 7.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | France vs. Namibia | Sep 21 | 96 – 0 | 35.30 | TRUE |
| 3 | Argentina vs. Samoa | Sep 22 | 19 – 10 | 0.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Georgia vs. Portugal | Sep 23 | 18 – 18 | 10.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | England vs. Chile | Sep 23 | 71 – 0 | 22.30 | TRUE |
| 6 | South Africa vs. Ireland | Sep 23 | 8 – 13 | 0.60 | FALSE |
| 7 | Scotland vs. Tonga | Sep 24 | 45 – 17 | 18.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Wales vs. Australia | Sep 24 | 40 – 6 | -1.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 4
Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Uruguay vs. Namibia | Sep 27 | Uruguay | 3.10 |
| 2 | Japan vs. Samoa | Sep 28 | Samoa | -5.40 |
| 3 | New Zealand vs. Italy | Sep 29 | New Zealand | 23.90 |
| 4 | Argentina vs. Chile | Sep 30 | Argentina | 19.90 |
| 5 | Fiji vs. Georgia | Sep 30 | Fiji | 4.40 |
| 6 | Scotland vs. Romania | Sep 30 | Scotland | 27.00 |
| 7 | Australia vs. Portugal | Oct 01 | Australia | 14.90 |
| 8 | South Africa vs. Tonga | Oct 01 | South Africa | 30.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Your prediction for ZA would have been correct if ZA managed to have a proper penalty kicker.
1 year ago
True, but that variability is why there is always a limit on predictability in sports.
1 year ago
What is your predictions for week 5
1 year ago
And the variability is what makes sports interesting.
1 year ago
Come On South Africa. Lets Finish this.
1 year ago