RWC 2023 Predictions for Week 3
Team Ratings for Week 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| South Africa | 18.34 | 16.35 | 2.00 |
| Ireland | 17.72 | 15.46 | 2.30 |
| New Zealand | 17.23 | 16.32 | 0.90 |
| France | 12.13 | 12.48 | -0.40 |
| Scotland | 6.37 | 6.81 | -0.40 |
| England | 5.46 | 4.22 | 1.20 |
| Australia | 2.81 | 2.63 | 0.20 |
| Wales | 1.63 | 0.75 | 0.90 |
| Fiji | 0.62 | 0.58 | 0.00 |
| Argentina | 0.57 | 1.23 | -0.70 |
| Samoa | 0.29 | -0.50 | 0.80 |
| Georgia | -3.25 | -2.56 | -0.70 |
| Japan | -5.77 | -6.10 | 0.30 |
| Italy | -7.32 | -8.84 | 1.50 |
| Tonga | -12.06 | -11.38 | -0.70 |
| Portugal | -14.03 | -13.61 | -0.40 |
| Uruguay | -14.57 | -15.47 | 0.90 |
| Namibia | -16.15 | -13.18 | -3.00 |
| Chile | -16.83 | -15.13 | -1.70 |
| Romania | -20.15 | -17.02 | -3.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 16 matches played, 15 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 93.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | France vs. Uruguay | Sep 14 | 27 – 12 | 35.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | New Zealand vs. Namibia | Sep 15 | 71 – 3 | 30.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Samoa vs. Chile | Sep 16 | 43 – 10 | 15.50 | TRUE |
| 4 | Wales vs. Portugal | Sep 16 | 28 – 8 | 14.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Ireland vs. Tonga | Sep 16 | 59 – 16 | 28.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | South Africa vs. Romania | Sep 17 | 76 – 0 | 35.40 | TRUE |
| 7 | Australia vs. Fiji | Sep 17 | 15 – 22 | 3.20 | FALSE |
| 8 | England vs. Japan | Sep 17 | 34 – 12 | 10.10 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 3
Here are the predictions for Week 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Italy vs. Uruguay | Sep 20 | Italy | 7.30 |
| 2 | France vs. Namibia | Sep 21 | France | 35.30 |
| 3 | Argentina vs. Samoa | Sep 22 | Argentina | 0.30 |
| 4 | Georgia vs. Portugal | Sep 23 | Georgia | 10.80 |
| 5 | England vs. Chile | Sep 23 | England | 22.30 |
| 6 | South Africa vs. Ireland | Sep 23 | South Africa | 0.60 |
| 7 | Scotland vs. Tonga | Sep 24 | Scotland | 18.40 |
| 8 | Wales vs. Australia | Sep 24 | Australia | -1.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Is Australia by -1.2 a win for Wales by 1.2?
1 year ago
Sorry, no. Negative value means second named team (usually the away team) is predicted to win by that margin.
1 year ago
David, been enjoying your predictions!
Thinking Wales Australia, and Argentina Samoa high chance for upset?
1 year ago
Predicted margins are small so those games are close, particularly Argentina v Samoa.
South Africa v Ireland also was predicted to be close and clearly could have gone the other way if South Africa had landed their kicks. (Amazing to say that about South Africa who normally are excellent kicking for goal.)
1 year ago