September 5, 2023

NRL Predictions for Finals Week 1

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Team Ratings for Finals Week 1

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.38 12.99 0.40
Storm 9.45 11.21 -1.80
Broncos 5.89 -5.92 11.80
Knights 4.12 -9.53 13.60
Sharks 3.53 4.50 -1.00
Cowboys 2.47 6.23 -3.80
Roosters 2.13 7.64 -5.50
Rabbitohs 0.87 9.35 -8.50
Eels 0.14 6.78 -6.60
Warriors -0.06 -11.12 11.10
Sea Eagles -0.48 -5.26 4.80
Raiders -5.02 1.98 -7.00
Dragons -6.93 -2.73 -4.20
Dolphins -7.09 -10.00 2.90
Titans -7.89 -6.32 -1.60
Wests Tigers -13.15 -13.52 0.40
Bulldogs -13.35 -8.29 -5.10

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 204 matches played, 129 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Broncos vs. Storm Aug 31 22 – 32 0.90 FALSE
2 Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers Sep 01 54 – 12 12.40 TRUE
3 Rabbitohs vs. Roosters Sep 01 12 – 26 4.00 FALSE
4 Dolphins vs. Warriors Sep 02 34 – 10 -4.20 FALSE
5 Panthers vs. Cowboys Sep 02 44 – 12 11.40 TRUE
6 Dragons vs. Knights Sep 02 12 – 32 -6.30 TRUE
7 Titans vs. Bulldogs Sep 03 34 – 30 9.70 TRUE
8 Sharks vs. Raiders Sep 03 24 – 6 10.40 TRUE

 

Predictions for Finals Week 1

Here are the predictions for Finals Week 1. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Storm Sep 08 Storm -0.60
2 Panthers vs. Warriors Sep 09 Panthers 19.40
3 Sharks vs. Roosters Sep 09 Sharks 4.40
4 Knights vs. Raiders Sep 10 Knights 12.10

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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