NRL Predictions for Round 27
Team Ratings for Round 27
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 12.14 | 12.99 | -0.90 |
| Storm | 8.71 | 11.21 | -2.50 |
| Broncos | 6.63 | -5.92 | 12.60 |
| Cowboys | 3.70 | 6.23 | -2.50 |
| Knights | 3.22 | -9.53 | 12.70 |
| Sharks | 2.98 | 4.50 | -1.50 |
| Rabbitohs | 1.98 | 9.35 | -7.40 |
| Warriors | 1.53 | -11.12 | 12.70 |
| Roosters | 1.03 | 7.64 | -6.60 |
| Eels | 0.14 | 6.78 | -6.60 |
| Sea Eagles | -2.14 | -5.26 | 3.10 |
| Raiders | -4.46 | 1.98 | -6.40 |
| Dragons | -6.03 | -2.73 | -3.30 |
| Titans | -7.26 | -6.32 | -0.90 |
| Dolphins | -8.69 | -10.00 | 1.30 |
| Wests Tigers | -11.49 | -13.52 | 2.00 |
| Bulldogs | -13.98 | -8.29 | -5.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 196 matches played, 124 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 63.3%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Eels | Aug 24 | 18 – 32 | 18.60 | FALSE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Dragons | Aug 25 | 18 – 6 | 14.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Dolphins vs. Cowboys | Aug 25 | 10 – 34 | -7.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Storm vs. Titans | Aug 26 | 37 – 16 | 18.40 | TRUE |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 26 | 32 – 8 | 14.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Broncos | Aug 26 | 18 – 29 | -7.30 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 27 | 24 – 42 | -7.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Knights vs. Sharks | Aug 27 | 32 – 6 | 0.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 27
Here are the predictions for Round 27. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Storm | Aug 31 | Broncos | 0.90 |
| 2 | Sea Eagles vs. Wests Tigers | Sep 01 | Sea Eagles | 12.40 |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Roosters | Sep 01 | Rabbitohs | 4.00 |
| 4 | Dolphins vs. Warriors | Sep 02 | Warriors | -4.20 |
| 5 | Panthers vs. Cowboys | Sep 02 | Panthers | 11.40 |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Knights | Sep 02 | Knights | -6.30 |
| 7 | Titans vs. Bulldogs | Sep 03 | Titans | 9.70 |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Raiders | Sep 03 | Sharks | 10.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Interested in your updates
1 year ago