Top 14 Predictions for Round 2
Team Ratings for Round 2
I got caught by the early start to the Top 14, so my published predictions start from Round 2. You can see below the predictions for Round1.
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 6.57 | 7.24 | -0.70 |
| Stade Rochelais | 5.96 | 6.40 | -0.40 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.11 | 4.07 | 0.00 |
| Racing 92 | 3.38 | 3.42 | -0.00 |
| Stade Francais | 3.32 | 2.62 | 0.70 |
| Lyon | 3.25 | 2.97 | 0.30 |
| Toulon | 2.83 | 3.11 | -0.30 |
| Montpellier | 2.53 | 2.09 | 0.40 |
| Clermont | 0.73 | 1.47 | -0.70 |
| Section Paloise | -0.16 | -0.44 | 0.30 |
| Bayonne | -0.65 | -1.32 | 0.70 |
| Castres Olympique | -0.67 | -0.39 | -0.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.34 | -3.64 | -0.70 |
| US Oyonnax | -9.26 | -10.00 | 0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 7 matches played, 4 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bayonne vs. Stade Toulousain | Aug 19 | 26 – 7 | -2.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles | Aug 19 | 23 – 18 | 5.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais | Aug 20 | 7 – 29 | 0.20 | FALSE |
| 4 | US Oyonnax vs. Clermont | Aug 20 | 36 – 17 | -5.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Lyon vs. Toulon | Aug 20 | 27 – 15 | 6.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Castres Olympique vs. Section Paloise | Aug 20 | 24 – 23 | 6.50 | TRUE |
| 7 | Montpellier vs. Stade Rochelais | Aug 21 | 26 – 15 | 2.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 2
Here are the predictions for Round 2. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Francais vs. US Oyonnax | Aug 26 | Stade Francais | 19.10 |
| 2 | Stade Rochelais vs. Lyon | Aug 26 | Stade Rochelais | 9.20 |
| 3 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Castres Olympique | Aug 27 | Bordeaux Begles | 11.30 |
| 4 | Clermont vs. USA Perpignan | Aug 27 | Clermont | 11.60 |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 | Aug 27 | Section Paloise | 3.00 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Bayonne | Aug 27 | Toulon | 10.00 |
| 7 | Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier | Aug 28 | Stade Toulousain | 10.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »