NRL Predictions for Round 26
Team Ratings for Round 26
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 13.93 | 12.99 | 0.90 |
| Storm | 8.42 | 11.21 | -2.80 |
| Broncos | 6.22 | -5.92 | 12.10 |
| Sharks | 4.45 | 4.50 | -0.10 |
| Cowboys | 2.65 | 6.23 | -3.60 |
| Rabbitohs | 1.98 | 9.35 | -7.40 |
| Knights | 1.75 | -9.53 | 11.30 |
| Warriors | 1.75 | -11.12 | 12.90 |
| Roosters | 0.34 | 7.64 | -7.30 |
| Eels | -1.65 | 6.78 | -8.40 |
| Sea Eagles | -2.86 | -5.26 | 2.40 |
| Raiders | -4.05 | 1.98 | -6.00 |
| Dragons | -6.25 | -2.73 | -3.50 |
| Titans | -6.97 | -6.32 | -0.70 |
| Dolphins | -7.64 | -10.00 | 2.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.81 | -13.52 | 2.70 |
| Bulldogs | -13.25 | -8.29 | -5.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 188 matches played, 117 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Aug 17 | 12 – 32 | 4.00 | FALSE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 18 | 29 – 22 | 11.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Eels vs. Roosters | Aug 18 | 12 – 34 | 4.00 | FALSE |
| 4 | Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins | Aug 19 | 24 – 23 | -0.50 | FALSE |
| 5 | Titans vs. Panthers | Aug 19 | 14 – 40 | -16.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Storm | Aug 19 | 28 – 38 | -12.10 | TRUE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 20 | 29 – 10 | 0.50 | TRUE |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Bulldogs | Aug 20 | 36 – 24 | 12.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 26
Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Panthers vs. Eels | Aug 24 | Panthers | 18.60 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Dragons | Aug 25 | Warriors | 14.00 |
| 3 | Dolphins vs. Cowboys | Aug 25 | Cowboys | -7.30 |
| 4 | Storm vs. Titans | Aug 26 | Storm | 18.40 |
| 5 | Roosters vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 26 | Roosters | 14.10 |
| 6 | Raiders vs. Broncos | Aug 26 | Broncos | -7.30 |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 27 | Sea Eagles | -7.40 |
| 8 | Knights vs. Sharks | Aug 27 | Knights | 0.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Can you explain the predictions-7.30, 7.40 and .30 etc
I don’t understand that .is that for point difference
1 year ago
good predictions..
1 year ago
Very good prediction
1 year ago
I would like to see more pridiction
1 year ago
I already liked your tipping
1 year ago