Bunnings NPC Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 3
Team Ratings for Wednesday Game for Round 3
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Canterbury | 12.37 | 9.44 | 2.90 |
| Wellington | 9.32 | 8.72 | 0.60 |
| North Harbour | 5.30 | 7.75 | -2.50 |
| Auckland | 3.86 | 2.15 | 1.70 |
| Hawke’s Bay | 3.36 | 5.12 | -1.80 |
| Bay of Plenty | 2.36 | 4.55 | -2.20 |
| Waikato | 1.84 | 3.71 | -1.90 |
| Tasman | 1.75 | 2.20 | -0.50 |
| Taranaki | -0.38 | -2.98 | 2.60 |
| Otago | -0.61 | 0.62 | -1.20 |
| Northland | -4.55 | -3.92 | -0.60 |
| Counties Manukau | -5.11 | -7.44 | 2.30 |
| Southland | -11.26 | -12.27 | 1.00 |
| Manawatu | -14.79 | -14.18 | -0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 23 matches played, 16 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Counties Manukau vs. Bay of Plenty | Aug 18 | 32 – 19 | -7.30 | FALSE |
| 2 | North Harbour vs. Auckland | Aug 19 | 23 – 43 | 8.20 | FALSE |
| 3 | Wellington vs. Southland | Aug 19 | 39 – 17 | 24.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Canterbury vs. Manawatu | Aug 19 | 68 – 26 | 28.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Northland vs. Tasman | Aug 19 | 32 – 5 | -7.80 | FALSE |
| 6 | Hawke’s Bay vs. Otago | Aug 20 | 33 – 32 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 7 | Waikato vs. Taranaki | Aug 20 | 17 – 29 | 8.00 | FALSE |
Predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 3
Here are the predictions for Wednesday Game for Round 3. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Wellington vs. Tasman | Aug 23 | Wellington | 10.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi Dawid, I have been following your previous RWC with great success, I am sad to see no RWC 2023 predictions on your app, are you still going to post or not. If you are please communicate with me the platform.
Regards
Rikus Meyer
1 year ago
RWC 2023 predictions are coming. I have the data sorted but the ratings require a lot of thought and investigation. Home ground advantage choice is also providing some challenges: one approach suggests 4 points, another 7 points.
Overall I am having to make a lot of judgement calls due to the different nature of the preceding games compared to the competitions for which I usually provide predictions.
1 year ago
My apologies for the spelling mistake on your name David.
1 year ago
Hi David.
Thank you for all the work. I know the data input must be crazy to compile and work through.
Looking forward on the results of the RWC.
1 year ago