NRL Predictions for Round 25
Team Ratings for Round 25
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 13.27 | 12.99 | 0.30 |
| Storm | 8.66 | 11.21 | -2.50 |
| Broncos | 6.22 | -5.92 | 12.10 |
| Cowboys | 4.05 | 6.23 | -2.20 |
| Rabbitohs | 3.11 | 9.35 | -6.20 |
| Sharks | 3.06 | 4.50 | -1.40 |
| Warriors | 2.26 | -11.12 | 13.40 |
| Knights | 0.61 | -9.53 | 10.10 |
| Eels | -0.16 | 6.78 | -6.90 |
| Roosters | -1.15 | 7.64 | -8.80 |
| Sea Eagles | -3.37 | -5.26 | 1.90 |
| Raiders | -4.02 | 1.98 | -6.00 |
| Titans | -6.31 | -6.32 | 0.00 |
| Dragons | -6.49 | -2.73 | -3.80 |
| Dolphins | -7.47 | -10.00 | 2.50 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.97 | -13.52 | 2.50 |
| Bulldogs | -13.28 | -8.29 | -5.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 180 matches played, 112 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 62.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Panthers | Aug 10 | 12 – 24 | -14.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Titans | Aug 11 | 36 – 6 | 9.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Eels | Aug 11 | 54 – 10 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | Rabbitohs vs. Dragons | Aug 12 | 26 – 14 | 12.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Warriors | Aug 12 | 22 – 30 | -7.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Dolphins | Aug 12 | 30 – 14 | 8.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Storm vs. Raiders | Aug 13 | 48 – 2 | 12.00 | TRUE |
| 8 | Knights vs. Bulldogs | Aug 13 | 42 – 6 | 14.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 25
Here are the predictions for Round 25. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cowboys vs. Sharks | Aug 17 | Cowboys | 4.00 |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 18 | Warriors | 11.60 |
| 3 | Eels vs. Roosters | Aug 18 | Eels | 4.00 |
| 4 | Wests Tigers vs. Dolphins | Aug 19 | Dolphins | -0.50 |
| 5 | Titans vs. Panthers | Aug 19 | Panthers | -16.60 |
| 6 | Dragons vs. Storm | Aug 19 | Storm | -12.10 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Rabbitohs | Aug 20 | Knights | 0.50 |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Bulldogs | Aug 20 | Raiders | 12.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Note that I am still receiving requests to send emails giving my forecasts. I don’t do that and requests to do so just go to trash.
I try and post every Tuesday, so if you check then, you should be able to see the forecasts. The only variation is for the NPC where there are Wednesday games, and I try to post on Monday for that game and on Thursday for the next round games.
1 year ago
Thank’s for your update for Round 25 2023
Thank’s sir
1 year ago
Liked your Predictions..
1 year ago
Predictions for Round 25.
1 year ago
Thanks for the update
1 year ago
I love your tips. You absolutely did well in most of the tips.
1 year ago
greate
1 year ago
You did well
1 year ago
So what does the prediction points mean
Example 12.30.
1 year ago
If the prediction is 12.30, the expected winning margin for the first named team (usually the home team) is 12.30 points. If it were -12.30, the second named team would be expected to win with a margin of 12.30 points.
1 year ago