NRL Predictions for Round 24
Team Ratings for Round 24
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 13.50 | 12.99 | 0.50 |
| Storm | 6.81 | 11.21 | -4.40 |
| Broncos | 4.17 | -5.92 | 10.10 |
| Cowboys | 4.05 | 6.23 | -2.20 |
| Rabbitohs | 3.20 | 9.35 | -6.20 |
| Warriors | 2.15 | -11.12 | 13.30 |
| Eels | 1.89 | 6.78 | -4.90 |
| Sharks | 1.85 | 4.50 | -2.70 |
| Knights | -0.68 | -9.53 | 8.80 |
| Roosters | -1.72 | 7.64 | -9.40 |
| Raiders | -2.18 | 1.98 | -4.20 |
| Sea Eagles | -3.60 | -5.26 | 1.70 |
| Titans | -5.10 | -6.32 | 1.20 |
| Dragons | -6.57 | -2.73 | -3.80 |
| Dolphins | -6.90 | -10.00 | 3.10 |
| Wests Tigers | -10.86 | -13.52 | 2.70 |
| Bulldogs | -11.99 | -8.29 | -3.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 172 matches played, 104 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Sea Eagles | Aug 03 | 26 – 16 | 4.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Titans vs. Warriors | Aug 04 | 18 – 28 | 0.20 | FALSE |
| 3 | Panthers vs. Storm | Aug 04 | 26 – 6 | 8.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Broncos | Aug 05 | 14 – 30 | 5.40 | FALSE |
| 5 | Dolphins vs. Knights | Aug 05 | 28 – 30 | -3.60 | TRUE |
| 6 | Rabbitohs vs. Sharks | Aug 05 | 16 – 26 | 6.40 | FALSE |
| 7 | Eels vs. Dragons | Aug 06 | 26 – 20 | 12.40 | TRUE |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Wests Tigers | Aug 06 | 22 – 18 | 13.00 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 24
Here are the predictions for Round 24. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Panthers | Aug 10 | Panthers | -14.10 |
| 2 | Sharks vs. Titans | Aug 11 | Sharks | 9.90 |
| 3 | Broncos vs. Eels | Aug 11 | Broncos | 5.30 |
| 4 | Rabbitohs vs. Dragons | Aug 12 | Rabbitohs | 12.80 |
| 5 | Wests Tigers vs. Warriors | Aug 12 | Warriors | -7.00 |
| 6 | Roosters vs. Dolphins | Aug 12 | Roosters | 8.20 |
| 7 | Storm vs. Raiders | Aug 13 | Storm | 12.00 |
| 8 | Knights vs. Bulldogs | Aug 13 | Knights | 14.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Hi, are your tips for NRL Round 27 being posted today? Thanks
1 year ago
Just posted now. I got a bit distracted with two NPC posts and I am also preparing data for my Rugby World Cup predictions.
1 year ago
Hurry up Bro – I need to sound authoritative and I can’t without your predictions.
Great stuff – regards
Andrew
1 year ago
All in good time Andrew
1 year ago