NRL Predictions for Round 22
Team Ratings for Round 22
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 11.74 | 12.99 | -1.30 |
| Cowboys | 6.44 | 6.23 | 0.20 |
| Storm | 6.18 | 11.21 | -5.00 |
| Rabbitohs | 4.47 | 9.35 | -4.90 |
| Eels | 3.81 | 6.78 | -3.00 |
| Broncos | 1.89 | -5.92 | 7.80 |
| Sharks | 1.78 | 4.50 | -2.70 |
| Warriors | 1.45 | -11.12 | 12.60 |
| Raiders | -0.00 | 1.98 | -2.00 |
| Roosters | -1.18 | 7.64 | -8.80 |
| Knights | -2.04 | -9.53 | 7.50 |
| Sea Eagles | -3.60 | -5.26 | 1.70 |
| Titans | -5.50 | -6.32 | 0.80 |
| Dolphins | -6.56 | -10.00 | 3.40 |
| Dragons | -6.60 | -2.73 | -3.90 |
| Wests Tigers | -11.74 | -13.52 | 1.80 |
| Bulldogs | -12.51 | -8.29 | -4.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 156 matches played, 95 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 60.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dragons vs. Wests Tigers | Jul 20 | 18 – 14 | 9.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Warriors vs. Raiders | Jul 21 | 21 – 20 | 8.60 | TRUE |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Broncos | Jul 21 | 20 – 36 | 8.40 | FALSE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Roosters | Jul 22 | 18 – 36 | 1.00 | FALSE |
| 5 | Knights vs. Storm | Jul 22 | 26 – 18 | -7.20 | FALSE |
| 6 | Cowboys vs. Eels | Jul 22 | 24 – 16 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Panthers vs. Bulldogs | Jul 23 | 44 – 18 | 27.60 | TRUE |
| 8 | Sharks vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 23 | 26 – 30 | 10.20 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 22
Here are the predictions for Round 22. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Broncos vs. Roosters | Jul 27 | Broncos | 6.10 |
| 2 | Wests Tigers vs. Rabbitohs | Jul 28 | Rabbitohs | -16.20 |
| 3 | Storm vs. Eels | Jul 28 | Storm | 5.40 |
| 4 | Raiders vs. Knights | Jul 29 | Raiders | 5.00 |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Sea Eagles | Jul 29 | Dragons | 0.00 |
| 6 | Panthers vs. Sharks | Jul 29 | Panthers | 13.00 |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Dolphins | Jul 30 | Dolphins | -6.00 |
| 8 | Titans vs. Cowboys | Jul 30 | Cowboys | -8.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »