June 13, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 13.20 12.99 0.20
Rabbitohs 8.13 9.35 -1.20
Storm 6.39 11.21 -4.80
Eels 5.28 6.78 -1.50
Broncos 1.04 -5.92 7.00
Sharks 0.53 4.50 -4.00
Cowboys -0.12 6.23 -6.30
Roosters -0.68 7.64 -8.30
Raiders -1.46 1.98 -3.40
Dragons -1.87 -2.73 0.90
Sea Eagles -2.62 -5.26 2.60
Warriors -3.00 -11.12 8.10
Titans -5.91 -6.32 0.40
Dolphins -6.87 -10.00 3.10
Wests Tigers -7.29 -13.52 6.20
Knights -7.83 -9.53 1.70
Bulldogs -8.91 -8.29 -0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 116 matches played, 67 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 57.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Titans vs. Wests Tigers Jun 08 28 – 12 2.60 TRUE
2 Raiders vs. Warriors Jun 09 14 – 36 11.20 FALSE
3 Sea Eagles vs. Dolphins Jun 09 58 – 18 3.30 TRUE
4 Dragons vs. Rabbitohs Jun 10 36 – 30 -8.90 FALSE
5 Broncos vs. Knights Jun 10 24 – 20 13.20 TRUE
6 Roosters vs. Panthers Jun 10 6 – 30 -9.00 TRUE
7 Storm vs. Sharks Jun 11 54 – 10 4.70 TRUE
8 Bulldogs vs. Eels Jun 12 12 – 34 -9.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Cowboys vs. Panthers Jun 16 Panthers -10.30
2 Knights vs. Roosters Jun 17 Roosters -4.20
3 Eels vs. Sea Eagles Jun 17 Eels 10.90
4 Wests Tigers vs. Storm Jun 17 Storm -10.70
5 Sharks vs. Bulldogs Jun 18 Sharks 12.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »