Super Rugby Predictions for Week 14
Team Ratings for Week 14
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 17.22 | 17.95 | -0.70 |
| Blues | 12.97 | 12.34 | 0.60 |
| Chiefs | 12.59 | 8.81 | 3.80 |
| Hurricanes | 10.19 | 9.59 | 0.60 |
| Brumbies | 6.65 | 6.64 | 0.00 |
| Highlanders | 0.97 | 5.04 | -4.10 |
| Reds | 0.51 | 1.89 | -1.40 |
| Waratahs | -0.70 | -2.50 | 1.80 |
| Western Force | -4.45 | -5.54 | 1.10 |
| Rebels | -5.71 | -6.19 | 0.50 |
| Fijian Drua | -9.53 | -10.50 | 1.00 |
| Moana Pasifika | -12.06 | -8.91 | -3.20 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 72 matches played, 55 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 76.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Moana Pasifika vs. Crusaders | May 19 | 7 – 41 | -25.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Reds vs. Blues | May 19 | 26 – 45 | -5.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Highlanders vs. Rebels | May 20 | 20 – 17 | 13.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Chiefs vs. Hurricanes | May 20 | 23 – 12 | 5.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Waratahs vs. Fijian Drua | May 20 | 32 – 18 | 12.10 | TRUE |
| 6 | Western Force vs. Brumbies | May 20 | 34 – 19 | -9.40 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 14
Here are the predictions for Week 14. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Highlanders vs. Reds | May 26 | Highlanders | 6.00 |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Western Force | May 26 | Rebels | 2.20 |
| 3 | Fijian Drua vs. Moana Pasifika | May 27 | Fijian Drua | 8.00 |
| 4 | Crusaders vs. Waratahs | May 27 | Crusaders | 23.40 |
| 5 | Blues vs. Hurricanes | May 27 | Blues | 6.30 |
| 6 | Brumbies vs. Chiefs | May 27 | Chiefs | -0.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »