Top 14 Predictions for Round 26
Team Ratings for Round 26
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Rochelle | 7.27 | 6.88 | 0.40 |
| Stade Toulousain | 6.59 | 6.34 | 0.20 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 5.19 | 5.27 | -0.10 |
| Racing 92 | 4.59 | 4.86 | -0.30 |
| Toulon | 3.45 | 4.09 | -0.60 |
| Montpellier | 3.38 | 4.18 | -0.80 |
| Lyon | 3.13 | 3.10 | 0.00 |
| Stade Francais | 3.02 | -1.05 | 4.10 |
| Clermont | 1.87 | 4.05 | -2.20 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.05 | 2.87 | -2.80 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -0.67 | -4.26 | 3.60 |
| Section Paloise | -0.93 | -2.12 | 1.20 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.61 | -2.75 | -0.90 |
| Brive | -6.08 | -4.20 | -1.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 175 matches played, 125 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Clermont | May 13 | 21 – 18 | 4.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Section Paloise | May 13 | 28 – 0 | 11.50 | TRUE |
| 3 | Brive vs. Castres Olympique | May 13 | 13 – 16 | 0.70 | FALSE |
| 4 | Montpellier vs. La Rochelle | May 13 | 42 – 31 | 1.70 | TRUE |
| 5 | Racing 92 vs. Toulon | May 13 | 43 – 7 | 5.80 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Francais vs. Lyon | May 13 | 31 – 31 | 7.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Stade Toulousain | May 13 | 26 – 21 | -4.70 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 26
Here are the predictions for Round 26. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castres Olympique vs. USA Perpignan | May 27 | Castres Olympique | 10.20 |
| 2 | Clermont vs. Racing 92 | May 27 | Clermont | 3.80 |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Stade Francais | May 27 | La Rochelle | 10.70 |
| 4 | Lyon vs. Aviron Bayonnais | May 27 | Lyon | 10.30 |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Montpellier | May 27 | Section Paloise | 2.20 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Brive | May 27 | Stade Toulousain | 19.20 |
| 7 | Toulon vs. Bordeaux Begles | May 27 | Toulon | 4.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »