May 16, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 12

Team Ratings for Round 12

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 12.84 12.99 -0.20
Rabbitohs 11.59 9.35 2.20
Storm 5.92 11.21 -5.30
Sharks 2.90 4.50 -1.60
Eels 2.88 6.78 -3.90
Raiders 1.56 1.98 -0.40
Roosters 1.49 7.64 -6.20
Cowboys 0.77 6.23 -5.50
Broncos 0.51 -5.92 6.40
Dragons -3.16 -2.73 -0.40
Dolphins -4.58 -10.00 5.40
Warriors -5.46 -11.12 5.70
Sea Eagles -5.79 -5.26 -0.50
Titans -6.10 -6.32 0.20
Knights -8.72 -9.53 0.80
Bulldogs -9.11 -8.29 -0.80
Wests Tigers -9.54 -13.52 4.00

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 88 matches played, 51 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 58%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Broncos May 11 24 – 16 8.50 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Warriors May 12 12 – 24 4.40 FALSE
3 Panthers vs. Roosters May 12 48 – 4 10.70 TRUE
4 Rabbitohs vs. Wests Tigers May 13 20 – 0 25.30 TRUE
5 Cowboys vs. Dragons May 13 42 – 22 5.00 TRUE
6 Raiders vs. Eels May 13 26 – 18 0.60 TRUE
7 Knights vs. Titans May 14 46 – 26 -2.20 FALSE
8 Sea Eagles vs. Sharks May 14 14 – 20 -5.60 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 12

Here are the predictions for Round 12. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Broncos vs. Panthers May 18 Panthers -9.30
2 Dragons vs. Roosters May 19 Roosters -1.60
3 Rabbitohs vs. Eels May 19 Rabbitohs 11.70
4 Sharks vs. Knights May 20 Sharks 14.60
5 Wests Tigers vs. Cowboys May 20 Cowboys -7.30
6 Dolphins vs. Storm May 20 Storm -7.50
7 Bulldogs vs. Titans May 21 Titans -0.00
8 Raiders vs. Sea Eagles May 21 Raiders 10.30

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

Comments

  • avatar
    Demas Rupen

    My first time commenting here, Just wanna say thanks for your time and effort in doing all the analysis to come out with the best tips

    2 years ago

  • avatar
    Christine mondo

    I’m new here and this is my first time commenting so please I just want to ask one question.

    Can somebody please help me tip the total match point for all the matches in nrl round 12??

    Thank-you very much

    Love from PAPUA NEW GUINEA❤️💯

    2 years ago

    • avatar

      Good luck with that.

      Only someone with considerable expertise and a good amount of time would be able to do that, and even then the accuracy achievable would be low in my view.

      2 years ago

  • avatar
    Fitzgerald Kennedy

    thanks for the tips.

    2 years ago