May 2, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 10

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Team Ratings for Round 10

I have had to update the predictions for this round since I just became aware the games are all being played at Suncorp.

I have to say that this arrangement is blatantly unfair to the non-Brisbane teams which lose a home game advantage but particularly the Sea Eagles, the Sharks and the Warriors on this occasion. The first two teams get to play their home game at the home stadium of their opponents so are doubly disadvantaged regarding home ground advantage. The Warriors have to play their home game across the Tasman and the home ground advantage they lose is greater for them according to my statistical analysis.

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

 

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 11.52 12.99 -1.50
Rabbitohs 11.41 9.35 2.10
Storm 6.74 11.21 -4.50
Roosters 4.51 7.64 -3.10
Sharks 4.42 4.50 -0.10
Eels 4.22 6.78 -2.60
Raiders 1.47 1.98 -0.50
Broncos -0.71 -5.92 5.20
Cowboys -1.39 6.23 -7.60
Dragons -1.42 -2.73 1.30
Sea Eagles -4.58 -5.26 0.70
Titans -5.58 -6.32 0.70
Dolphins -6.14 -10.00 3.90
Warriors -6.99 -11.12 4.10
Bulldogs -8.54 -8.29 -0.30
Knights -10.04 -9.53 -0.50
Wests Tigers -10.89 -13.52 2.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 72 matches played, 41 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.9%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

 

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Sharks vs. Cowboys Apr 27 44 – 6 5.20 TRUE
2 Eels vs. Knights Apr 28 43 – 12 15.30 TRUE
3 Broncos vs. Rabbitohs Apr 28 6 – 32 -6.80 TRUE
4 Raiders vs. Dolphins Apr 29 31 – 30 12.10 TRUE
5 Sea Eagles vs. Titans Apr 29 10 – 26 6.70 FALSE
6 Panthers vs. Wests Tigers Apr 29 8 – 12 29.00 FALSE
7 Warriors vs. Roosters Apr 30 0 – 14 -4.10 TRUE
8 Dragons vs. Bulldogs Apr 30 16 – 18 11.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Round 10

Here are the predictions for Round 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

 

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bulldogs vs. Raiders May 05 Raiders -10.00
2 Sea Eagles vs. Broncos May 05 Broncos -6.90
3 Warriors vs. Panthers May 06 Panthers -18.50
4 Sharks vs. Dolphins May 06 Sharks 7.60
5 Storm vs. Rabbitohs May 06 Rabbitohs -4.70
6 Wests Tigers vs. Dragons May 07 Dragons -9.50
7 Roosters vs. Cowboys May 07 Roosters 5.90
8 Titans vs. Eels May 07 Eels -9.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »

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