Super Rugby Predictions for Week 10
Team Ratings for Week 10
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 16.70 | 17.95 | -1.30 |
| Blues | 13.79 | 12.34 | 1.40 |
| Chiefs | 11.94 | 8.81 | 3.10 |
| Hurricanes | 10.42 | 9.59 | 0.80 |
| Brumbies | 7.32 | 6.64 | 0.70 |
| Highlanders | 2.33 | 5.04 | -2.70 |
| Reds | 0.60 | 1.89 | -1.30 |
| Waratahs | -1.85 | -2.50 | 0.70 |
| Western Force | -5.32 | -5.54 | 0.20 |
| Rebels | -6.38 | -6.19 | -0.20 |
| Fijian Drua | -9.65 | -10.50 | 0.90 |
| Moana Pasifika | -11.27 | -8.91 | -2.40 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 48 matches played, 37 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 77.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Fijian Drua | Apr 21 | 50 – 17 | 26.50 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Crusaders | Apr 21 | 27 – 43 | -17.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Blues vs. Waratahs | Apr 22 | 55 – 21 | 20.00 | TRUE |
| 4 | Western Force vs. Highlanders | Apr 22 | 30 – 17 | -3.50 | FALSE |
Predictions for Week 10
Here are the predictions for Week 10. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Brumbies | Apr 28 | Hurricanes | 8.60 |
| 2 | Waratahs vs. Highlanders | Apr 28 | Waratahs | 1.30 |
| 3 | Fijian Drua vs. Blues | Apr 29 | Blues | -17.90 |
| 4 | Moana Pasifika vs. Rebels | Apr 29 | Moana Pasifika | 0.60 |
| 5 | Chiefs vs. Crusaders | Apr 29 | Crusaders | -1.30 |
| 6 | Reds vs. Western Force | Apr 29 | Reds | 9.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »