Top 14 Predictions for Round 23
Team Ratings for Round 23
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| La Rochelle | 8.29 | 6.88 | 1.40 |
| Stade Toulousain | 7.16 | 6.34 | 0.80 |
| Toulon | 5.38 | 4.09 | 1.30 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.72 | 5.27 | -0.50 |
| Stade Francais | 3.43 | -1.05 | 4.50 |
| Lyon | 3.27 | 3.10 | 0.20 |
| Montpellier | 3.21 | 4.18 | -1.00 |
| Racing 92 | 2.99 | 4.86 | -1.90 |
| Clermont | 1.69 | 4.05 | -2.40 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.69 | 2.87 | -2.20 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -0.64 | -4.26 | 3.60 |
| Section Paloise | -1.61 | -2.12 | 0.50 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.64 | -2.75 | -1.90 |
| Brive | -6.66 | -4.20 | -2.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 154 matches played, 110 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.4%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brive vs. Stade Francais | Apr 15 | 22 – 27 | -3.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | La Rochelle vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Apr 15 | 26 – 6 | 14.90 | TRUE |
| 3 | Montpellier vs. Castres Olympique | Apr 15 | 19 – 28 | 10.30 | FALSE |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Bordeaux Begles | Apr 15 | 31 – 28 | 5.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Clermont | Apr 15 | 23 – 18 | 3.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Lyon | Apr 15 | 36 – 31 | 11.00 | TRUE |
| 7 | Toulon vs. USA Perpignan | Apr 15 | 37 – 15 | 15.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 23
Here are the predictions for Round 23. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Montpellier | Apr 22 | Aviron Bayonnais | 2.70 |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Lyon | Apr 22 | Bordeaux Begles | 8.00 |
| 3 | Brive vs. Section Paloise | Apr 22 | Brive | 1.40 |
| 4 | Castres Olympique vs. Toulon | Apr 22 | Castres Olympique | 1.80 |
| 5 | La Rochelle vs. Clermont | Apr 22 | La Rochelle | 13.10 |
| 6 | Stade Francais vs. Stade Toulousain | Apr 22 | Stade Francais | 2.80 |
| 7 | USA Perpignan vs. Racing 92 | Apr 22 | Racing 92 | -1.10 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »