April 11, 2023

NRL Predictions for Round 7

Team Ratings for Round 7

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Panthers 14.92 12.99 1.90
Rabbitohs 9.27 9.35 -0.10
Storm 8.80 11.21 -2.40
Roosters 5.11 7.64 -2.50
Eels 3.56 6.78 -3.20
Raiders 2.27 1.98 0.30
Cowboys 2.01 6.23 -4.20
Sharks 1.33 4.50 -3.20
Dragons -1.11 -2.73 1.60
Broncos -1.64 -5.92 4.30
Sea Eagles -4.39 -5.26 0.90
Titans -6.07 -6.32 0.20
Dolphins -6.08 -10.00 3.90
Warriors -7.94 -11.12 3.20
Bulldogs -8.12 -8.29 0.20
Knights -11.15 -9.53 -1.60
Wests Tigers -12.76 -13.52 0.80

Performance So Far

So far there have been 48 matches played, 25 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 52.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Storm vs. Roosters Apr 06 28 – 8 4.70 TRUE
2 Bulldogs vs. Rabbitohs Apr 07 16 – 50 -11.80 TRUE
3 Cowboys vs. Dolphins Apr 07 22 – 32 13.90 FALSE
4 Panthers vs. Sea Eagles Apr 08 44 – 12 20.80 TRUE
5 Broncos vs. Raiders Apr 08 14 – 20 0.00 FALSE
6 Titans vs. Dragons Apr 09 20 – 18 -3.10 FALSE
7 Knights vs. Warriors Apr 09 34 – 24 1.60 TRUE
8 Wests Tigers vs. Eels Apr 10 22 – 28 -14.50 TRUE

Predictions for Round 7

Here are the predictions for Round 7. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Dolphins vs. Rabbitohs Apr 13 Rabbitohs -12.30
2 Sharks vs. Roosters Apr 14 Roosters -0.80
3 Sea Eagles vs. Storm Apr 14 Storm -10.20
4 Warriors vs. Cowboys Apr 15 Cowboys -3.90
5 Knights vs. Panthers Apr 15 Panthers -23.10
6 Titans vs. Broncos Apr 15 Broncos -1.40
7 Raiders vs. Dragons Apr 16 Raiders 6.40
8 Eels vs. Bulldogs Apr 16 Eels 14.70
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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »