United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 17
Team Ratings for Week 17
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 16.36 | 16.79 | -0.40 |
| Ulster | 10.03 | 9.27 | 0.80 |
| Munster | 9.44 | 9.78 | -0.30 |
| Stormers | 8.95 | 7.14 | 1.80 |
| Bulls | 5.30 | 7.84 | -2.50 |
| Glasgow | 5.08 | -0.00 | 5.10 |
| Sharks | 4.68 | 6.95 | -2.30 |
| Connacht | 2.15 | -1.60 | 3.70 |
| Edinburgh | -0.31 | 3.58 | -3.90 |
| Scarlets | -1.44 | -1.23 | -0.20 |
| Ospreys | -3.06 | -0.83 | -2.20 |
| Lions | -3.39 | -1.74 | -1.60 |
| Benetton | -3.97 | -3.68 | -0.30 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -5.79 | -7.42 | 1.60 |
| Dragons | -10.31 | -11.81 | 1.50 |
| Zebre | -17.70 | -16.99 | -0.70 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 128 matches played, 91 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 71.1%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zebre vs. Cardiff Rugby | Mar 25 | 30 – 34 | -8.30 | TRUE |
| 2 | Leinster vs. Stormers | Mar 25 | 22 – 22 | 13.10 | FALSE |
| 3 | Benetton vs. Lions | Mar 26 | 28 – 32 | 4.80 | FALSE |
| 4 | Ospreys vs. Dragons | Mar 26 | 37 – 18 | 10.30 | TRUE |
| 5 | Connacht vs. Edinburgh | Mar 26 | 41 – 26 | 6.00 | TRUE |
| 6 | Munster vs. Glasgow | Mar 26 | 26 – 38 | 10.60 | FALSE |
| 7 | Scarlets vs. Sharks | Mar 26 | 32 – 20 | -2.90 | FALSE |
| 8 | Ulster vs. Bulls | Mar 26 | 32 – 23 | 9.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 17
Here are the predictions for Week 17. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharks vs. Benetton | Apr 15 | Sharks | 13.20 |
| 2 | Glasgow vs. Scarlets | Apr 15 | Glasgow | 11.00 |
| 3 | Ulster vs. Dragons | Apr 15 | Ulster | 24.80 |
| 4 | Lions vs. Leinster | Apr 15 | Leinster | -15.20 |
| 5 | Bulls vs. Zebre | Apr 16 | Bulls | 27.50 |
| 6 | Stormers vs. Munster | Apr 16 | Stormers | 4.00 |
| 7 | Connacht vs. Cardiff Rugby | Apr 16 | Connacht | 12.40 |
| 8 | Edinburgh vs. Ospreys | Apr 16 | Edinburgh | 7.20 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »