NRL Predictions for Round 5
Team Ratings for Round 5
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 11.26 | 12.99 | -1.70 |
| Rabbitohs | 8.42 | 9.35 | -0.90 |
| Storm | 7.57 | 11.21 | -3.60 |
| Sharks | 5.75 | 4.50 | 1.20 |
| Roosters | 5.64 | 7.64 | -2.00 |
| Eels | 5.60 | 6.78 | -1.20 |
| Cowboys | 2.82 | 6.23 | -3.40 |
| Raiders | 0.79 | 1.98 | -1.20 |
| Broncos | -1.68 | -5.92 | 4.20 |
| Sea Eagles | -2.41 | -5.26 | 2.80 |
| Dragons | -4.93 | -2.73 | -2.20 |
| Titans | -5.39 | -6.32 | 0.90 |
| Dolphins | -7.11 | -10.00 | 2.90 |
| Bulldogs | -7.60 | -8.29 | 0.70 |
| Warriors | -8.36 | -11.12 | 2.80 |
| Knights | -9.68 | -9.53 | -0.20 |
| Wests Tigers | -12.69 | -13.52 | 0.80 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 32 matches played, 18 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 56.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Panthers | Mar 23 | 17 – 16 | -3.70 | FALSE |
| 2 | Storm vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 24 | 24 – 12 | 25.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Dolphins vs. Broncos | Mar 24 | 12 – 18 | -1.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Titans | Mar 25 | 24 – 12 | 11.00 | TRUE |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 25 | 13 – 12 | 15.70 | TRUE |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Bulldogs | Mar 26 | 16 – 14 | 6.20 | TRUE |
| 7 | Knights vs. Raiders | Mar 26 | 24 – 14 | -9.90 | FALSE |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Sharks | Mar 26 | 8 – 40 | -4.60 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 5
Here are the predictions for Round 5. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roosters vs. Eels | Mar 30 | Roosters | 3.00 |
| 2 | Raiders vs. Panthers | Mar 31 | Panthers | -7.50 |
| 3 | Rabbitohs vs. Storm | Mar 31 | Rabbitohs | 3.90 |
| 4 | Sea Eagles vs. Knights | Apr 01 | Sea Eagles | 10.30 |
| 5 | Dragons vs. Dolphins | Apr 01 | Dragons | 5.20 |
| 6 | Broncos vs. Wests Tigers | Apr 01 | Broncos | 14.00 |
| 7 | Sharks vs. Warriors | Apr 02 | Sharks | 20.10 |
| 8 | Bulldogs vs. Cowboys | Apr 02 | Cowboys | -7.40 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
I really like your NRL performance ratings and predictions. They are almost 80% put correct.
I follow your NRL performance ratings and prediction to make my bet.
Please do email me your NRL predictions and performance ratings.
2 years ago
I like your statistics and tips. This are guides to.bettings.
2 years ago
I don’t recommend betting on sport. Betting companies have access to much more data and use far more sophisticated algorithms than the one I use for these predictions.
2 years ago