Currie Cup Predictions for Round 4
I was not aware the Currie Cup was starting, and only just saw the results recently. Sorry that I missed the first three rounds: I had always intended to give predictions for it this year again.
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cheetahs | 8.86 | 4.67 | 4.20 |
| Pumas | 5.64 | 2.84 | 2.80 |
| Griquas | -0.36 | 1.39 | -1.80 |
| Sharks | -0.63 | -1.30 | 0.70 |
| Bulls | -1.61 | 3.43 | -5.00 |
| Western Province | -1.85 | -3.24 | 1.40 |
| Lions | -7.50 | -7.79 | 0.30 |
| Griffons | -12.56 | -10.00 | -2.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 12 matches played, 9 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 75%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lions vs. Griffons | Mar 25 | 41 – 26 | 8.00 | TRUE |
| 2 | Cheetahs vs. Bulls | Mar 25 | 32 – 7 | 12.80 | TRUE |
| 3 | Pumas vs. Griquas | Mar 25 | 28 – 13 | 9.10 | TRUE |
| 4 | Sharks vs. Western Province | Mar 26 | 20 – 7 | 3.90 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Griffons vs. Bulls | Apr 01 | Bulls | -6.90 |
| 2 | Cheetahs vs. Pumas | Apr 01 | Cheetahs | 7.20 |
| 3 | Lions vs. Sharks | Apr 02 | Sharks | -2.90 |
| 4 | Western Province vs. Griquas | Apr 02 | Western Province | 2.50 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »