NRL Predictions for Round 4
Team Ratings for Round 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 11.78 | 12.99 | -1.20 |
| Rabbitohs | 9.36 | 9.35 | 0.00 |
| Storm | 8.42 | 11.21 | -2.80 |
| Roosters | 5.64 | 7.64 | -2.00 |
| Eels | 5.08 | 6.78 | -1.70 |
| Sharks | 4.19 | 4.50 | -0.30 |
| Cowboys | 2.71 | 6.23 | -3.50 |
| Raiders | 2.00 | 1.98 | 0.00 |
| Broncos | -2.18 | -5.92 | 3.70 |
| Sea Eagles | -3.35 | -5.26 | 1.90 |
| Dragons | -3.37 | -2.73 | -0.60 |
| Titans | -5.28 | -6.32 | 1.00 |
| Dolphins | -6.61 | -10.00 | 3.40 |
| Warriors | -7.91 | -11.12 | 3.20 |
| Bulldogs | -8.06 | -8.29 | 0.20 |
| Knights | -10.88 | -9.53 | -1.40 |
| Wests Tigers | -13.55 | -13.52 | -0.00 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 24 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 50%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sea Eagles vs. Eels | Mar 16 | 34 – 30 | -6.90 | FALSE |
| 2 | Knights vs. Dolphins | Mar 17 | 20 – 36 | 0.80 | FALSE |
| 3 | Roosters vs. Rabbitohs | Mar 17 | 20 – 18 | -1.50 | FALSE |
| 4 | Titans vs. Storm | Mar 18 | 38 – 34 | -12.80 | FALSE |
| 5 | Cowboys vs. Warriors | Mar 18 | 12 – 26 | 20.30 | FALSE |
| 6 | Broncos vs. Dragons | Mar 18 | 40 – 18 | 1.70 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bulldogs vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 19 | 26 – 22 | 9.70 | TRUE |
| 8 | Raiders vs. Sharks | Mar 19 | 24 – 20 | -0.10 | FALSE |
Predictions for Round 4
Here are the predictions for Round 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eels vs. Panthers | Mar 23 | Panthers | -3.70 |
| 2 | Storm vs. Wests Tigers | Mar 24 | Storm | 25.00 |
| 3 | Dolphins vs. Broncos | Mar 24 | Broncos | -1.40 |
| 4 | Cowboys vs. Titans | Mar 25 | Cowboys | 11.00 |
| 5 | Rabbitohs vs. Sea Eagles | Mar 25 | Rabbitohs | 15.70 |
| 6 | Warriors vs. Bulldogs | Mar 26 | Warriors | 6.20 |
| 7 | Knights vs. Raiders | Mar 26 | Raiders | -9.90 |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Sharks | Mar 26 | Sharks | -4.60 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Iam very interesting for nrl
2 years ago
Iam wholly agree with your prediction inline with what I was hoping.
Please can you send all round predictions to my gmail.com address as stated.
Kind regards
2 years ago
Sorry, not going to happen. Head to Stats Chat on a Tuesday to see the predictions for the coming week.
2 years ago
Thankyou very much for your stats. I use them every week
2 years ago