Super Rugby Predictions for Week 4
Team Ratings for Week 4
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Crusaders | 16.79 | 17.95 | -1.20 |
| Blues | 13.40 | 12.34 | 1.10 |
| Chiefs | 10.62 | 8.81 | 1.80 |
| Hurricanes | 10.10 | 9.59 | 0.50 |
| Brumbies | 7.01 | 6.64 | 0.40 |
| Highlanders | 2.47 | 5.04 | -2.60 |
| Reds | 2.41 | 1.89 | 0.50 |
| Waratahs | -2.08 | -2.50 | 0.40 |
| Rebels | -5.75 | -6.19 | 0.40 |
| Western Force | -7.07 | -5.54 | -1.50 |
| Moana Pasifika | -9.25 | -8.91 | -0.30 |
| Fijian Drua | -10.01 | -10.50 | 0.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 18 matches played, 12 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 66.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chiefs vs. Highlanders | Mar 10 | 28 – 7 | 10.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Rebels vs. Waratahs | Mar 10 | 34 – 27 | -0.90 | FALSE |
| 3 | Fijian Drua vs. Crusaders | Mar 11 | 25 – 24 | -23.10 | FALSE |
| 4 | Hurricanes vs. Blues | Mar 11 | 19 – 25 | 0.90 | FALSE |
| 5 | Brumbies vs. Reds | Mar 11 | 23 – 17 | 8.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Western Force vs. Moana Pasifika | Mar 11 | 21 – 18 | 8.20 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 4
Here are the predictions for Week 4. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hurricanes vs. Waratahs | Mar 17 | Hurricanes | 17.70 |
| 2 | Chiefs vs. Rebels | Mar 18 | Chiefs | 21.90 |
| 3 | Blues vs. Crusaders | Mar 18 | Blues | 0.10 |
| 4 | Brumbies vs. Moana Pasifika | Mar 18 | Brumbies | 21.80 |
| 5 | Highlanders vs. Western Force | Mar 19 | Highlanders | 15.00 |
| 6 | Reds vs. Fijian Drua | Mar 19 | Reds | 15.90 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »