United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 16
Team Ratings for Week 16
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Leinster | 16.97 | 16.79 | 0.20 |
| Munster | 10.33 | 9.78 | 0.50 |
| Ulster | 10.06 | 9.27 | 0.80 |
| Stormers | 8.34 | 7.14 | 1.20 |
| Sharks | 5.35 | 6.95 | -1.60 |
| Bulls | 5.27 | 7.84 | -2.60 |
| Glasgow | 4.19 | -0.00 | 4.20 |
| Connacht | 1.69 | -1.60 | 3.30 |
| Edinburgh | 0.15 | 3.58 | -3.40 |
| Scarlets | -2.10 | -1.23 | -0.90 |
| Benetton | -3.51 | -3.68 | 0.20 |
| Ospreys | -3.51 | -0.83 | -2.70 |
| Lions | -3.85 | -1.74 | -2.10 |
| Cardiff Rugby | -5.36 | -7.42 | 2.10 |
| Dragons | -9.85 | -11.81 | 2.00 |
| Zebre | -18.13 | -16.99 | -1.10 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 120 matches played, 87 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glasgow vs. Zebre | Mar 04 | 50 – 8 | 25.40 | TRUE |
| 2 | Munster vs. Scarlets | Mar 04 | 49 – 42 | 18.00 | TRUE |
| 3 | Stormers vs. Sharks | Mar 05 | 29 – 23 | 7.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Bulls vs. Lions | Mar 05 | 25 – 29 | 14.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Edinburgh vs. Leinster | Mar 05 | 27 – 47 | -11.40 | TRUE |
| 6 | Ospreys vs. Benetton | Mar 05 | 20 – 21 | 5.90 | FALSE |
| 7 | Cardiff Rugby vs. Ulster | Mar 05 | 20 – 42 | -9.80 | TRUE |
| 8 | Dragons vs. Connacht | Mar 05 | 20 – 22 | -8.30 | TRUE |
Predictions for Week 16
Here are the predictions for Week 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Zebre vs. Cardiff Rugby | Mar 25 | Cardiff Rugby | -8.30 |
| 2 | Leinster vs. Stormers | Mar 25 | Leinster | 13.10 |
| 3 | Benetton vs. Lions | Mar 26 | Benetton | 4.80 |
| 4 | Ospreys vs. Dragons | Mar 26 | Ospreys | 10.30 |
| 5 | Connacht vs. Edinburgh | Mar 26 | Connacht | 6.00 |
| 6 | Munster vs. Glasgow | Mar 26 | Munster | 10.60 |
| 7 | Scarlets vs. Sharks | Mar 26 | Sharks | -2.90 |
| 8 | Ulster vs. Bulls | Mar 26 | Ulster | 9.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »