Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 20
Team Ratings for Round 20
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sale Sharks | 5.05 | 4.14 | 0.90 |
| Leicester Tigers | 3.18 | 7.93 | -4.70 |
| London Irish | 2.59 | -1.65 | 4.20 |
| Harlequins | 2.37 | 3.92 | -1.60 |
| Gloucester | 1.50 | 5.92 | -4.40 |
| Saracens | 1.25 | -5.00 | 6.20 |
| Exeter Chiefs | 0.60 | 3.67 | -3.10 |
| Bristol | 0.13 | -2.43 | 2.60 |
| Northampton Saints | -0.05 | 3.99 | -4.00 |
| Wasps | -0.18 | 0.77 | -1.00 |
| Bath | -6.40 | -9.15 | 2.70 |
| Newcastle Falcons | -7.27 | -8.76 | 1.50 |
| Worcester Warriors | -11.69 | -12.27 | 0.60 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 92 matches played, 63 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 68.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bristol vs. Northampton Saints | Mar 04 | 62 – 8 | -0.10 | FALSE |
| 2 | Leicester Tigers vs. Bath | Mar 05 | 48 – 27 | 13.20 | TRUE |
| 3 | Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs | Mar 05 | 40 – 5 | 3.20 | TRUE |
| 4 | Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish | Mar 06 | 19 – 34 | -4.10 | TRUE |
| 5 | Sale Sharks vs. Saracens | Mar 06 | 35 – 24 | 7.80 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 20
Here are the predictions for Round 20. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Northampton Saints vs. Bath | Mar 11 | Northampton Saints | 10.90 |
| 2 | Exeter Chiefs vs. Newcastle Falcons | Mar 12 | Exeter Chiefs | 12.40 |
| 3 | London Irish vs. Sale Sharks | Mar 12 | London Irish | 2.00 |
| 4 | Gloucester vs. Leicester Tigers | Mar 13 | Gloucester | 2.80 |
| 5 | Bristol vs. Harlequins | Mar 13 | Bristol | 2.30 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »