February 10, 2023
Top 14 Predictions for Round 18
Team Ratings for Round 18
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.54 | 6.34 | 1.20 |
| La Rochelle | 6.59 | 6.88 | -0.30 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.46 | 5.27 | -0.80 |
| Stade Francais | 4.37 | -1.05 | 5.40 |
| Racing 92 | 4.19 | 4.86 | -0.70 |
| Toulon | 3.90 | 4.09 | -0.20 |
| Montpellier | 3.57 | 4.18 | -0.60 |
| Lyon | 2.47 | 3.10 | -0.60 |
| Clermont | 1.55 | 4.05 | -2.50 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.84 | 2.87 | -2.00 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -0.32 | -4.26 | 3.90 |
| Section Paloise | -1.28 | -2.12 | 0.80 |
| USA Perpignan | -4.54 | -2.75 | -1.80 |
| Brive | -6.07 | -4.20 | -1.90 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 119 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Stade Toulousain vs. Aviron Bayonnais | Feb 05 | 21 – 16 | 15.10 | TRUE |
| 2 | Brive vs. USA Perpignan | Feb 05 | 22 – 24 | 5.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Clermont vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 05 | 41 – 26 | 6.30 | TRUE |
| 4 | La Rochelle vs. Lyon | Feb 05 | 16 – 20 | 11.70 | FALSE |
| 5 | Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 | Feb 05 | 38 – 19 | -0.20 | FALSE |
| 6 | Montpellier vs. Toulon | Feb 05 | 18 – 20 | 7.10 | FALSE |
| 7 | Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles | Feb 06 | 12 – 6 | 6.50 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 18
Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Francais | Feb 19 | Aviron Bayonnais | 1.80 |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle | Feb 19 | Castres Olympique | 0.70 |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Montpellier | Feb 19 | Lyon | 5.40 |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Brive | Feb 19 | Racing 92 | 16.80 |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise | Feb 19 | USA Perpignan | 3.20 |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain | Feb 19 | Toulon | 2.90 |
| 7 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont | Feb 20 | Bordeaux Begles | 9.40 |