February 28, 2023

Rugby Premiership Predictions for Round 19

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Team Ratings for Round 19

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Sale Sharks 4.79 4.14 0.70
Leicester Tigers 2.72 7.93 -5.20
Northampton Saints 2.33 3.99 -1.70
Exeter Chiefs 2.12 3.67 -1.50
London Irish 1.98 -1.65 3.60
Gloucester 1.50 5.92 -4.40
Saracens 1.50 -5.00 6.50
Harlequins 0.85 3.92 -3.10
Wasps -0.18 0.77 -1.00
Bristol -2.25 -2.43 0.20
Bath -5.94 -9.15 3.20
Newcastle Falcons -6.66 -8.76 2.10
Worcester Warriors -11.69 -12.27 0.60

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 87 matches played, 59 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 67.8%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bath vs. Bristol Feb 25 13 – 15 1.30 FALSE
2 Saracens vs. Newcastle Falcons Feb 26 29 – 23 13.60 TRUE
3 Northampton Saints vs. Gloucester Feb 26 41 – 34 5.00 TRUE
4 London Irish vs. Leicester Tigers Feb 26 22 – 25 4.70 FALSE
5 Exeter Chiefs vs. Sale Sharks Feb 27 24 – 22 1.80 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 19

Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Bristol vs. Northampton Saints Mar 04 Northampton Saints -0.10
2 Leicester Tigers vs. Bath Mar 05 Leicester Tigers 13.20
3 Harlequins vs. Exeter Chiefs Mar 05 Harlequins 3.20
4 Newcastle Falcons vs. London Irish Mar 06 London Irish -4.10
5 Sale Sharks vs. Saracens Mar 06 Sale Sharks 7.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »