February 21, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Delayed Games

Team Ratings for Delayed Games

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 16.51 16.79 -0.30
Munster 10.87 9.78 1.10
Ulster 9.05 9.27 -0.20
Stormers 8.47 7.14 1.30
Bulls 6.05 7.84 -1.80
Sharks 5.66 6.95 -1.30
Glasgow 3.18 -0.00 3.20
Connacht 2.32 -1.60 3.90
Edinburgh 0.61 3.58 -3.00
Scarlets -2.64 -1.23 -1.40
Ospreys -2.82 -0.83 -2.00
Benetton -4.20 -3.68 -0.50
Lions -4.33 -1.74 -2.60
Cardiff Rugby -4.78 -7.42 2.60
Dragons -10.48 -11.81 1.30
Zebre -17.41 -16.99 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 110 matches played, 80 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 72.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Glasgow vs. Ulster Feb 18 17 – 11 -2.30 FALSE
2 Munster vs. Ospreys Feb 18 58 – 3 15.60 TRUE
3 Lions vs. Sharks Feb 19 7 – 29 -4.50 TRUE
4 Bulls vs. Stormers Feb 19 19 – 23 3.00 FALSE
5 Zebre vs. Connacht Feb 19 34 – 57 -14.30 TRUE
6 Cardiff Rugby vs. Benetton Feb 19 30 – 13 2.60 TRUE
7 Scarlets vs. Edinburgh Feb 19 42 – 14 -0.80 FALSE
8 Leinster vs. Dragons Feb 19 43 – 14 32.10 TRUE

 

Predictions for Delayed Games

Here are the predictions for Delayed Games. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Sharks vs. Ulster Feb 26 Sharks 1.10
2 Lions vs. Glasgow Feb 26 Glasgow -3.00

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »