Top 14 Predictions for Round 19
Team Ratings for Round 19
The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.
| Current Rating | Rating at Season Start | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stade Toulousain | 7.14 | 6.34 | 0.80 |
| La Rochelle | 7.11 | 6.88 | 0.20 |
| Bordeaux Begles | 4.44 | 5.27 | -0.80 |
| Stade Francais | 4.31 | -1.05 | 5.40 |
| Toulon | 4.30 | 4.09 | 0.20 |
| Racing 92 | 3.85 | 4.86 | -1.00 |
| Montpellier | 3.34 | 4.18 | -0.80 |
| Lyon | 2.70 | 3.10 | -0.40 |
| Clermont | 1.57 | 4.05 | -2.50 |
| Castres Olympique | 0.32 | 2.87 | -2.50 |
| Aviron Bayonnais | -0.26 | -4.26 | 4.00 |
| Section Paloise | -1.83 | -2.12 | 0.30 |
| USA Perpignan | -3.99 | -2.75 | -1.20 |
| Brive | -5.73 | -4.20 | -1.50 |
Performance So Far
So far there have been 126 matches played, 89 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.6%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.
| Game | Date | Score | Prediction | Correct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Francais | Feb 19 | 29 – 26 | 1.80 | TRUE |
| 2 | Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle | Feb 19 | 17 – 32 | 0.70 | FALSE |
| 3 | Lyon vs. Montpellier | Feb 19 | 31 – 21 | 5.40 | TRUE |
| 4 | Racing 92 vs. Brive | Feb 19 | 34 – 24 | 16.80 | TRUE |
| 5 | USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise | Feb 19 | 49 – 29 | 3.20 | TRUE |
| 6 | Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain | Feb 19 | 17 – 6 | 2.90 | TRUE |
| 7 | Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont | Feb 20 | 18 – 9 | 9.40 | TRUE |
Predictions for Round 19
Here are the predictions for Round 19. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.
| Game | Date | Winner | Prediction | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aviron Bayonnais vs. Castres Olympique | Feb 26 | Aviron Bayonnais | 5.90 |
| 2 | Bordeaux Begles vs. USA Perpignan | Feb 26 | Bordeaux Begles | 14.90 |
| 3 | La Rochelle vs. Brive | Feb 26 | La Rochelle | 19.30 |
| 4 | Lyon vs. Racing 92 | Feb 26 | Lyon | 5.30 |
| 5 | Stade Francais vs. Montpellier | Feb 26 | Stade Francais | 7.50 |
| 6 | Stade Toulousain vs. Section Paloise | Feb 26 | Stade Toulousain | 15.50 |
| 7 | Clermont vs. Toulon | Feb 27 | Clermont | 3.80 |
David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »
Please, I just want to know the score differences. Could you please highlight them clearly?
Lyon will win by this point and so on.
Thank you
2 years ago
OK. Top14 is a bit unusual the last two weeks in that all the points differentials are positive. That is because I expect all the home teams to win and the prediction column gives the expected winning margin, i.e. the number of points the home team will win by.
When I expect the away team to win, the points difference will be negative, and the Prediction column gives the expected winning margin again, as the number of points difference between the home team score and the away team score. Negative because the away team is expected to win.
If you look at the predictions for the other competitions you will see some predictions with negative values where I expect the away team to win.
2 years ago
Can you explain further on the prediction, like you mentioned score difference.
2 years ago
See the answer to the previous question.
2 years ago