February 10, 2023

Top 14 Predictions for Round 18

Team Ratings for Round 18

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.54 6.34 1.20
La Rochelle 6.59 6.88 -0.30
Bordeaux Begles 4.46 5.27 -0.80
Stade Francais 4.37 -1.05 5.40
Racing 92 4.19 4.86 -0.70
Toulon 3.90 4.09 -0.20
Montpellier 3.57 4.18 -0.60
Lyon 2.47 3.10 -0.60
Clermont 1.55 4.05 -2.50
Castres Olympique 0.84 2.87 -2.00
Aviron Bayonnais -0.32 -4.26 3.90
Section Paloise -1.28 -2.12 0.80
USA Perpignan -4.54 -2.75 -1.80
Brive -6.07 -4.20 -1.90

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 119 matches played, 83 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 69.7%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Stade Toulousain vs. Aviron Bayonnais Feb 05 21 – 16 15.10 TRUE
2 Brive vs. USA Perpignan Feb 05 22 – 24 5.70 FALSE
3 Clermont vs. Castres Olympique Feb 05 41 – 26 6.30 TRUE
4 La Rochelle vs. Lyon Feb 05 16 – 20 11.70 FALSE
5 Section Paloise vs. Racing 92 Feb 05 38 – 19 -0.20 FALSE
6 Montpellier vs. Toulon Feb 05 18 – 20 7.10 FALSE
7 Stade Francais vs. Bordeaux Begles Feb 06 12 – 6 6.50 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 18

Here are the predictions for Round 18. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Stade Francais Feb 19 Aviron Bayonnais 1.80
2 Castres Olympique vs. La Rochelle Feb 19 Castres Olympique 0.70
3 Lyon vs. Montpellier Feb 19 Lyon 5.40
4 Racing 92 vs. Brive Feb 19 Racing 92 16.80
5 USA Perpignan vs. Section Paloise Feb 19 USA Perpignan 3.20
6 Toulon vs. Stade Toulousain Feb 19 Toulon 2.90
7 Bordeaux Begles vs. Clermont Feb 20 Bordeaux Begles 9.40

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »