January 10, 2023

United Rugby Championship Predictions for Week 13

Team Ratings for Week 13

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Leinster 17.17 16.79 0.40
Munster 9.38 9.78 -0.40
Ulster 8.55 9.27 -0.70
Stormers 7.62 7.14 0.50
Bulls 7.46 7.84 -0.40
Sharks 5.61 6.95 -1.30
Glasgow 2.12 -0.00 2.10
Edinburgh 2.05 3.58 -1.50
Connacht 1.36 -1.60 3.00
Ospreys -1.09 -0.83 -0.30
Lions -3.08 -1.74 -1.30
Benetton -3.38 -3.68 0.30
Scarlets -4.40 -1.23 -3.20
Cardiff Rugby -5.77 -7.42 1.70
Dragons -10.17 -11.81 1.60
Zebre -17.38 -16.99 -0.40

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 93 matches played, 69 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 74.2%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Dragons vs. Bulls Jan 07 14 – 29 -12.70 TRUE
2 Munster vs. Lions Jan 07 33 – 3 15.70 TRUE
3 Benetton vs. Ulster Jan 08 31 – 29 -8.50 FALSE
4 Edinburgh vs. Zebre Jan 08 24 – 17 25.50 TRUE
5 Cardiff Rugby vs. Scarlets Jan 08 22 – 28 3.60 FALSE
6 Connacht vs. Sharks Jan 08 24 – 12 -0.90 FALSE
7 Ospreys vs. Leinster Jan 08 19 – 24 -14.70 TRUE
8 Glasgow vs. Stormers Jan 09 24 – 17 -1.90 FALSE

 

Predictions for Week 13

Here are the predictions for Week 13. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Scarlets vs. Bulls Jan 28 Bulls -7.40
2 Ulster vs. Stormers Jan 28 Ulster 5.40
3 Benetton vs. Munster Jan 29 Munster -8.30
4 Dragons vs. Glasgow Jan 29 Glasgow -7.80
5 Leinster vs. Cardiff Rugby Jan 29 Leinster 27.40
6 Edinburgh vs. Sharks Jan 29 Edinburgh 0.90
7 Connacht vs. Lions Jan 29 Connacht 8.90
8 Zebre vs. Ospreys Jan 30 Ospreys -11.80

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »