January 10, 2023

Top 14 Predictions for Round 16

Team Ratings for Round 16

The basic method is described on my Department home page.
Here are the team ratings prior to this week’s games, along with the ratings at the start of the season.

Current Rating Rating at Season Start Difference
Stade Toulousain 7.70 6.34 1.40
La Rochelle 7.04 6.88 0.20
Racing 92 4.87 4.86 0.00
Stade Francais 4.77 -1.05 5.80
Bordeaux Begles 4.53 5.27 -0.70
Montpellier 4.23 4.18 0.00
Toulon 3.49 4.09 -0.60
Clermont 1.57 4.05 -2.50
Lyon 1.49 3.10 -1.60
Castres Olympique 1.18 2.87 -1.70
Aviron Bayonnais -1.25 -4.26 3.00
Section Paloise -1.95 -2.12 0.20
Brive -5.10 -4.20 -0.90
USA Perpignan -5.29 -2.75 -2.50

 

Performance So Far

So far there have been 105 matches played, 74 of which were correctly predicted, a success rate of 70.5%.
Here are the predictions for last week’s games.

Game Date Score Prediction Correct
1 Bordeaux Begles vs. Aviron Bayonnais Jan 08 23 – 15 12.80 TRUE
2 Brive vs. Toulon Jan 08 26 – 17 -2.90 FALSE
3 Clermont vs. USA Perpignan Jan 08 31 – 20 13.60 TRUE
4 La Rochelle vs. Stade Toulousain Jan 08 30 – 7 4.70 TRUE
5 Section Paloise vs. Lyon Jan 08 12 – 21 3.90 FALSE
6 Stade Francais vs. Castres Olympique Jan 08 26 – 7 9.10 TRUE
7 Montpellier vs. Racing 92 Jan 09 17 – 12 6.00 TRUE

 

Predictions for Round 16

Here are the predictions for Round 16. The prediction is my estimated expected points difference with a positive margin being a win to the home team, and a negative margin a win to the away team.

Game Date Winner Prediction
1 Aviron Bayonnais vs. Brive Jan 28 Aviron Bayonnais 10.40
2 Castres Olympique vs. Bordeaux Begles Jan 28 Castres Olympique 3.20
3 Lyon vs. Clermont Jan 28 Lyon 6.40
4 Racing 92 vs. La Rochelle Jan 28 Racing 92 4.30
5 Stade Toulousain vs. Montpellier Jan 28 Stade Toulousain 10.00
6 Toulon vs. Section Paloise Jan 28 Toulon 11.90
7 USA Perpignan vs. Stade Francais Jan 28 Stade Francais -3.60

 

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David Scott obtained a BA and PhD from the Australian National University and then commenced his university teaching career at La Trobe University in 1972. He has taught at La Trobe University, the University of Sheffield, Bond University and Colorado State University, joining the University of Auckland, based at Tamaki Campus, in mid-1995. He has been Head of Department at La Trobe University, Acting Dean and Associate Dean (Academic) at Bond University, and Associate Director of the Centre for Quality Management and Data Analysis at Bond University with responsibility for Short Courses. He was Head of the Department of Statistics in 2000, and is a past President of the New Zealand Statistical Assocation. See all posts by David Scott »